Pirateboy's NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

[pirateboy]

Never said road dogs.

[Austiger]

Can you clarify what BE points you are using now and how you came up with them?

[pirateboy]

I will next week for you.

I came up with them when I received a new data set with win %s for every point spread. The guy who sent it to me asked me not to pass it around, so I'm trying to respect it. The BEs can be determined by subtracting the (edge) from the price I got.

So, let's say I got Team X +250 (10), then the BE is +240.

[pirateboy]

Last week was a down week, IMO. The reason I picked dogs in this experiment was because they seemed to be winning a tad more than normal.

Last week 6-12 -5.45u
YTD 13-25 -4.85u

I'm still very confident in the experiment. I will be posting any Thursday plays by 3 PST.

[pirateboy]

Only 1 play tonight:

TCU +240 (need +235)

[pirateboy]

Today's plays

Michigan State +170 (+153)
Virginia +155 (+141)
Wake Forest +315 (+289)
Temple +2250 (+885)
Duke +525 (+465)
Vanderbilt +150 (+142)
Connecticut +210 (+207)
Iowa State +160 (+150)
Notre Dame +145 (+142)
Colorado St +300 (+283)
Utah St +2000 (+924)
Wyoming +450 (+449)
UCLA +240 (+228)
Miss State +145 (+142)
Stanford +400 (+357)
Florida State +220 (+213)
New Mexico State +145 (+127)
NIU +145 (+142)
UNC +145 (+127)
Tulane +170 (+150)
South Carolina +250 (+228)
Cal +165 (+150)
SDSU +130 (+121)
Arkansas State +215 (+213)

[pirateboy]

I'll update my record later - in a rush.

1 play tonight

Arizona +315 (need +275 BE)

[pirateboy]

Not counting the Arizona victory last night:

YTD 20-43 -12.1u Not too worried, I made the bankroll available for this kind of variance.

So far tonight, we have:

Eastern Michigan +550 (need +536)

[pirateboy]

Arizona and EMU both hit, so this week feels good already. Saturday plays:

North Carolina +400 (need +357)
Wyoming +350 (need +286)
San Diego State +370 (need +366)
Miss State +400 (need +382)
Utah St +245 (need +240)
Texas Tech +250 (need +243)
Duke +245 (need +213)
Tulane +120 (need +116)
Michigan +150 (need +142)
Boston College +290 (need +283)
Oregon State +130 (need +121)

[knicknut]

I don't know if you've addressed this, but you're wrongfully assuming that average point spread and winning probability are directly related. While they're certainly highly correlated, they're not perfectly linked. You don't think Pinnacle is messing up every time it offers two teams at the same spread but with different moneylines (or vice versa), do you?

That's because the distribution of scores is not uniform in each game. If we assume every game will have an approximately normal distribution centered on the point spread, the standard deviation of this distribution will have a large effect on the percentage of the time each team wins.

For example, if you have an underdog that is very erratic (high SD), they will be more likely to win than a team that has the same point spread but is much less erratic (low SD). As a result, the more erratic team will have lower + odds ML than the consistent team (in an efficient market). And in you\r system, you're betting the low SD games, thinking all games are equal.

You may show short term success, but not all X point underdog games are created equal. I can't see this being a profitable strategy longterm.