very tough spot with flopped set

[mikeca]

If your read on this villain is that he would never 3 bet the flop with out the made flush, then you are behind but with a good draw.

If you call, there are probably two people left in the pot. If you cap it, you might knock out the bad player between, but I don’t see any reason to knock him out. If you do knock out the bad player, the cap is –EV, because you are going to only make your draw around one third of the time.

I would go into check/call mode and try to hit my draw. Putting anymore money than you have to into the pot is definitely –EV if it is HU, probably slightly -EV with 2 opponents.

[One Outer]

Ohhhhhhhhh. I didn't get it. It looked like the BB three bet.

Well, if we aren't comfortable capping and leading is there a reason that we can't call and lead? I hate the idea of giving a possible free card here and I would rather get bumped on the turn than do that, so I guess I'm in the cap/lead camp if that's the only option to ensure no free cards on the turn.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless villain is freecarding a draw (which doesn't sound like something he would do), I don't know why you think a brick turn is going to check through.

[/ QUOTE ]

[James.]

what the hell? are we looking at the same opponent here? how is this guy 3betting less than a flush EVER?

just for the sake of arguement, stove these hands against our 33:

Ad5c
Qd7d
Kh8s

these aren't ranges, but i think they're typical hands we would run into in this situation based on the players and the action.

edit to say:

sunday i hurt my back. so i've been hopped up on crazy pain meds since then. in my deluded state i actually misjudged our equity in this spot, but the point of the above hands was that the King was providing overlay and why would we want to get rid of him by capping? he increases our implied odds fairly significantly.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
what the hell? are we looking at the same opponent here? how is this guy 3betting less than a flush EVER?


[/ QUOTE ]

james, in your experience then, passive players like this would never 3 bet something like Ad6x?

i mean, one reason i posted this hand is that sometimes i feel that although we read someone as "very passive" we can easily underestimate what they're capable of in certain spots

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what the hell? are we looking at the same opponent here? how is this guy 3betting less than a flush EVER?


[/ QUOTE ]

james, in your experience then, passive players like this would never 3 bet something like Ad6x?

i mean, one reason i posted this hand is that sometimes i feel that although we read someone as "very passive" we can easily underestimate what they're capable of in certain spots

[/ QUOTE ]

what it boils down to is the power of a live read.

as i said in a post the other day, even the most passive players are capable of spastic retardation at times. no rhyme or reason. no history. just BAM, retardo.

so yeah, it's possible. but is it what is going to happen the majority of the time? we have the equity to cap. but does that mean it's the most profitable play?

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]

so yeah, it's possible. but is it what is going to happen the majority of the time? we have the equity to cap. but does that mean it's the most profitable play?

[/ QUOTE ]

basically, that is what my question was.

suppose he's capable of doing this with a range of:

flush
Ad6x (flush draw + pair)
Adx (naked Ace)
66
KK (yes he would limp PF)

is it more profitable to cap and lead a blank turn here, OOP?

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

so yeah, it's possible. but is it what is going to happen the majority of the time? we have the equity to cap. but does that mean it's the most profitable play?

[/ QUOTE ]

basically, that is what my question was.

suppose he's capable of doing this with a range of:

flush
Ad6x (flush draw + pair)
Adx (naked Ace)
66
KK (yes he would limp PF)

is it more profitable to cap and lead a blank turn here, OOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kit,

I'm almost positive your best play is to cap/lead against this range. In the actual hand, however, I think he has a flush almost always. You should be inclined to just call and c/c blank turns and lead turns where the board pairs.

JH