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#1
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
Easy answer:
100,108,882 games 55.328 secs 1,809,371 games/sec Board: Tc 3c 8h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.301% 40.30% 00.00% 40345710 0.00 { Jc9c } Hand 1: 59.699% 59.70% 00.00% 59764205 0.00 { TdTh } |
#2
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
I think we can settle down.
Board: Tc 3c 8h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.616% 51.62% 00.00% 26797650 0.00 { Jc9c } Hand 1: 48.384% 48.38% 00.00% 25119568 0.00 { AcAd } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.254% 56.25% 00.00% 154291495 0.00 { Jc9c } Hand 1: 43.746% 43.75% 00.00% 119986134 0.00 { AdAh } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.660% 45.66% 00.00% 33594480 0.00 { Jc9c } Hand 1: 54.340% 54.34% 00.00% 39981343 0.00 { QcQd } |
#3
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
I probably call the 5-bet. If I knew he wouldn't 7-bet, I would 6-bet.
I love the idea of jamming the pot (but not all-in) with a huge draw HU in position on the flop any time we have around or even slightly less than a 50% chance to win (or more obv.). It would increase variance but I think it is generally +EV as we would gain turn and river advantages. We gain deception, particularly those times we turn our hand and can continue jamming - it increases our implied odds. Jamming the pot will also gain us the a free card on the turn those times we miss the draw, and get checked to. But these would only be advantages if we have chips left at the turn and river (didn't reraise to the felt at the flop). In addition, I think some people would see jamming flop as a good image play that will get us better action in future hands. However, when villain takes this to 5 or 7 bets at the flop, I think it becomes pretty clear that we usually have less than a 50% chance to win. Even though we have an image of a LAG, villain is generally semi-passive and a set in his hand looks very likely. He will also very occasionally have a higher FD. |
#4
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
If he has AA, you should be willing to go all in.
If he has AA or TT, you should be willing to go as many bets so that he gets the last bet in on the flop, preserving your implied odds. Decide for yourself. |
#5
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
But if he has TT+, 88, you're behind.
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#6
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
[ QUOTE ]
But if he has TT+, 88, you're behind. [/ QUOTE ] Read the read? |
#7
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
Ah, missed that somehow, thanks. Still, FWIW, you often see players play the same hand from the same position differently because they're feeling lucky or whatever.
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#8
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...
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#9
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
[ QUOTE ]
okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason... [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here. |
#10
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Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason... [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here. [/ QUOTE ] also fwiw, he never has a bigger flush draw here. AK and AQ are drawing hands to him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
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