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#1
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
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this isn't a math question its a table metagame question. He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card. [/ QUOTE ] smurf, youve confused me (again)...are you saying he is either raising or folding or that a call by hero is clearly incorrect? for you and anyone to convince me that b/f is better than c/c you need at least argue that he calls down with worse Pocket pairs than arent spades and/or folds the worst of his spade hands (JJ) BTW the reads i gave in OP can be assumed to be accurate...this guy plays alot and ive datamined. In short he rarely gets out of line and IMHO he can make laydowns. Do i know if he is capable of foldinfg KK/QQ no spade...of course I dont know for sure but if anyone is capable of it..he fits the profile. Im pretty confident that he is more capable of folding KK/QQ than he is of incorrectly folding JJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so Im contending that c/c > b/f since b/f allows our opponent to play more correctly. what is teh point of betting if he only folds with hands we beat? btw as per BBBs comment...yes, maybe he calls w KK |
#2
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
I have'nt got the book with me, but 'Holdem on the Come' by Rolf Slotbottom (or whatever his name is) has a good section on the odds of a made flush, depending on the number of players in the hand etc. Naturally, i can't remember the odds/percentages.
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#3
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you?
If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards. Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade? He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold. I would rather bet/fold. |
#4
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
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If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't about you. This is about determining the best line against a villain who plays ABC poker as described in the original post. |
#5
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
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What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you? [/ QUOTE ] None. We are Way Ahead/Drawing Dead. I dont mind about giving a free card here to KKnospade. [ QUOTE ] If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards. [/ QUOTE ] Admittedly, this guy doesnt play like you but this comment only strengthens the c/c argument so Ill win at least one more BB when ahead whereas Ill not win anymore when you/he fold to my bet. [ QUOTE ] Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade? [/ QUOTE ] yes. I gave a read that I think this guy can value bet (at least on the turn) with KK, QQ. Im very confident c/c is +EV....se grunch by 36. [ QUOTE ] He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Smurf, IMHO you havent really created any solid argument for bet/fold given the info youve been given. |
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