200NL: AK facing 5bet push 3way

[Kairos]

UTG is running 27/22/2.5 over 3000 mostly datamined hands.
We played a bit before where I 3bet him a few times.
He once called my 3bet with 56s OOP and bet turn and river after I checked the flop on a TxxxT 3flush board. My JT took it down.

BB is unknown.

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $268.60
Hero (SB): $198
BB: $75.47
UTG: $199

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $7</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $25</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $75.47 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $199 and is All-In</font>, Hero ?

[futuredoc85]

snapler

[tommygunne]

Fold?
3 way pot? You got 5-betted?
UTG cannot overpush the BB's 4-bet without a big hand. I do believe you can safely fold here?

[CSKJ]

call instant

[Acevader]

I think it's a fold. If both opponents have a range of 99+, AQo+, AQs+ then you only win 32% of the time and that's not enough. I also think these ranges are quite generous.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a fold. If both opponents have a range of 99+, AQo+, AQs+ then you only win 32% of the time and that's not enough. I also think these ranges are quite generous.

[/ QUOTE ]

you arent factoring in that we only need to be in good shape vs the fullstack b/c sidepot&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;main pot

[Acevader]

You are right that I didn't separately assign ranges and calculate the EV in both pots. However, my broadbrush analysis still gives us the same answer. UTG had raised, been 3-bet and then been 4-bet (a meaningful amount). I really don't see him pushing AQ or 1010 here meaning at best his range is JJ+,AK meaning we are in bad shape in the main pot and probably not in outstanding shape in the side one either. What my analysis does show is that even if we assign quite a generous range to both villains we are still toast!

[sightless]

I fold this always
UTG could have us dominated and BB could have some of our outs

[Kairos]

I think I made a pretty bad fold but I was 0/5 with AK aipf in the last 4000 hands and didn't want to get stacked yet again.

UTG had AJs, BB had T6s.

[Acevader]

Don't be results orientated. I think it's the right fold in the longrun unless you have a more specific read that these guys have much wider ranges than the stats and info posted in OP suggests.