5/10 Live: Playing a non-nut boat deep vs. a strong opponent

[2handed]

Four handed, effective stacks about 2400. Villain is a young guy I have been playing live with quite a bit lately. He is a pro, but plays mostly holdem. He is pretty sharp, and we have been making some big plays against each other in the past few days, but when the big money gets in we both always generally both have had a big hand, with a few notable exceptions. Neither of us are afraid to bluff or call lightly, but both of us care about the money, making for an interesting dynamic. His biggest weaknesses are bluffing to much and slightly overvaluing hands due to his holdem background

Villain is BB, I straddle it up to 20, Button folds, SB calls, Villain calls, I raise 50 more with AQ98 with ace high hearts, they both call.

Flop J 9 9 two hearts (210): Checked to me, I bet 150, SB folds, Villain calls.

Turn Q of hearts (510) Villain leads for 300, I call.

River some small card (1110): Villain checks, I ask how much he is playing and he says just under 1800 and I bet 650, planning to fold to a checkraise since I can definitely say he never makes that play with anything worse than QQQ99.

Comments on any street welcome, and I am happy to elaborate on my thought process, reads, and the history if you think it is necessary.

[TimberBee]

Seems standard and good.

[sondring]

I like everything up to the river, which I'm not sure about.

Do you think he is capable of calling with a flush or a straight, or a worse 9 I guess, on the river?

Just noticed that you have high hearts in your hand, making a flush less likely for him.

Cool hand.

[2handed]

He is capable of calling with a flush, but it is going to be kinda rare, and it would have to be king high. J9 is a big part of his range though, and that he will not fold for half the pot.

[runnerunner]

I almost always put a good player on a big flush here. Will he 1/2 pot on the river with a flush? If so, then what does he think that you have? He knows that you aren't betting the river with just a 9 or a low flush, so I would think he would fold all but the A-hi flush and he might fold the A-hi flush some % of the time. Value from the river bet has to come from exactly J9.

If he never check raises without the nuts then I like betting the river to get value from J9, otherwise I would check behind.

[iggymcfly]

I like the play of the hand for the most part, but if it's obvious he has more than a PSB left, I don't really like asking how much money he has left when you're planning to bet/fold. Really, that's the only reason you'd be worried about his stack size at that point was if you thought you might lay down to a raise.

Most of the time, he'll have a good enough hand that he won't want to bluff anyway, and most players don't have the balls to bluff for that much money even with the read, but if he has something like AKT9, it's possible he might come over the top on a bluff specifically because of your comment when he'd either call or fold otherwise. The fact that you said he's a thinking player unafraid to bluff light would make me just a little concerned on that front however.

If it's not clear whether he has more than a PSB, you can disregard my comment, and otherwise I like the hand on every street.

[BadBenOni]

all OK to me,
the river is very read dependent so any internet speculation is not really valid.

Also depends on your style, If you always bet the pot with a bluff I pot it here and call a raise, but you are probably not that loose and dont bluff enough for that play to be +EV.

[2handed]

It wasnt clear how much he had since most of his money was in a stack of 100 dollar bills beneath a couple chipstacks. I generally try ask the size of the pot and how much my opponent is playing everytime it might be of interest.

That said, I still give of too many tells live and am not cosistent enough with my bet sizing with bluffs/value.

[RoundTower]

I think it's fine, I might bet a little bit more like 750-800 which makes it more plausible your hand is a bluff, and less likely he will check raise as a bluff.

[wazz]

I think your play is perfect. The way the hand's panned out, though, I might expect to see a badly-played jacks full a decent amount of the time, but it wouldn't stop me from betting the river.