Thursday (10/25) NCAAF

[Jazzy3113]

Air Force @ New Mexico -6

Boston College @ V Tech -3

I want to bet on Thursday and night and was wondering what the early game feel was on these two games.

I am going to take Air Force plus the points.

I was all ready to load up on Vtech at +3 and then I noticed that they were actually giving points. I thought the line would be set in the exact same vein as the USF/Rutgers game, where the game would be evenly matched by the hom team gets points due to "rank" and public feel.

Now that Tech is giving three I have no idea where to bet. I'm still leaning tech, but wanted to see if someone had a strong feel for BC.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Air Force @ New Mexico -6

Boston College @ V Tech -3

I want to bet on Thursday and night and was wondering what the early game feel was on these two games.

I am going to take Air Force plus the points.

I was all ready to load up on Vtech at +3 and then I noticed that they were actually giving points. I thought the line would be set in the exact same vein as the USF/Rutgers game, where the game would be evenly matched by the hom team gets points due to "rank" and public feel.

Now that Tech is giving three I have no idea where to bet. I'm still leaning tech, but wanted to see if someone had a strong feel for BC.

[/ QUOTE ]

I lean BC at 3 (have 1 unit BC +3), but I think this one is pretty close to correct. Tech has been lucky with turnovers and doesn't have a lot of offense. BC is probably slightly better on a neutral, but Tech has a nice homefield advantage on a Thursday night. Both teams coming off bye weeks.

[pirateboy]

Bills understated the biggest point - VT has one of the top home field advantages in football on Saturdays. Make it a Thursday night against the #2 in the country, while VT sits with only 1 loss - woweeee. I got VT at 2.5, thank goodness, because the game will be a battle.

This is BC's toughest test, and I won't lie, BC could win outright, too. Great game!

In the other, I won't bet it, but I lean AFA. They're flying under the radar and can keep it close.

[bills217]

Added 2 more units on BC at 3.5.

I am pretty worried about the environment, but VT has really been unimpressive to me so far, especially offensively. Their only "good" outcomes have been disproportionately affected by turnovers. BC embarrassed them last year.

In what should be a close, low-scoring game, I really like BC now getting 3.5.

[iggymcfly]

VT may be great at home historically, but it certainly hasn't been the case this year. They're 0-3 ATS at home this season and have not come within a TD of covering in any of those games.

I actually think VT being overrated may be enough to cancel out the effects of the "higher ranked team on the road" bias and any overrating of BC. Even though it's a huge game, I might just have to stay away from this on the betting line. VT -3 looks like a really accurate line to me.

[kevin017]

[ QUOTE ]
Bills understated the biggest point - VT has one of the top home field advantages in football on Saturdays. Make it a Thursday night against the #2 in the country, while VT sits with only 1 loss - woweeee. I got VT at 2.5, thank goodness, because the game will be a battle.

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this is actually sortof hard to determine, homefield advantage i mean. they're known for being loud, but their performances at home aren't hugely better than on the road.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
VT may be great at home historically, but it certainly hasn't been the case this year. They're 0-3 ATS at home this season and have not come within a TD of covering in any of those games.

I actually think VT being overrated may be enough to cancel out the effects of the "higher ranked team on the road" bias and any overrating of BC. Even though it's a huge game, I might just have to stay away from this on the betting line. VT -3 looks like a really accurate line to me.

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Against Ohio, they won 28-7 and the line was -22.5 so they did come very close to covering. Against UNC they won by 7 and the line was -18.5 (line was too big in retrospect.) The other 2 home games were the emotional home opener against ECU (tribute to the shooting victims) and a 44-3 win over Wm & Mary (no line.) All of their home games have been early afternoon games where they have been big faves. I really don't think you can compare these to the atmosphere they will have with BC coming in. The home field advantage will be HUGE in this game IMO.

[iggymcfly]

Oops, sorry about that. I double-checked the line against UNC, but didn't bother against Ohio, just assuming that it was over 28. Still, I think giving them credit for some huge home advantage is a mistake when they've actually played better on the road this season than they have in Blacksburg.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops, sorry about that. I double-checked the line against UNC, but didn't bother against Ohio, just assuming that it was over 28. Still, I think giving them credit for some huge home advantage is a mistake when they've actually played better on the road this season than they have in Blacksburg.

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They have played 3 road games and one was @ LSU where they were +11 and lost by 41. Their last 2 games were both on the road and they covered both, so maybe it's just that they are improving. Maybe the early-season mood around campus after the shootings weighed heavily on them since everyone was looking to them to give them something to cheer for, and now they have gotten back to focusing on football. Regardless, we are talking about a Thur. night game with an undefeated conference foe coming in. I don't see how it won't be a monster HFA.

[aufan91]

I have 1 unit on VT -3 (before it moved). VT's special teams will win this one for them. I say they'll have 2 ST TD's and win by about 10 or 14.