National Championship

[rush66]

Ok, I just have to throw something out there. In 2003, Army went 0-13. First time in history its ever happened. The next year in 2004, 4 years ago. They went 2-10. 1 of their wins was over USF. USF is now ranked 2nd in the nation and Army still sucks. Amazing.

[tjd2001]

I really think 12-1 are terrible odds for that bet. I think they are closer to 12-1 to make the BCS championship game (and they will be HUGE dog against whomever they face…say 3 to 1)…so unless you think they have a better than 4 – 1 chance of going undefeated the rest of the way (@ Rutgers, @ UConn, @Syracuse, @ Pitt, Cinnci, and Louisville) and beating out other undefeated BCS contenders (if Boston College goes undefeated, they will certainly going in ahead of USF) then stay away.

[pgjcbsn]

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Wisconsin is same

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Are you serious? I think Wisconsin is way down from last year.

The winner of the SEC title game should get an auto bid to the BCS national championship game. That conference is that much better than anyother.

[iggymcfly]

If South Florida wins out, they're ~90% to reach the championship. First off, the chances that there even are two other undefeateds at the end of the season are pretty slim. Ohio State's about 40-50% to win out and no one else is even close. Kansas, Arizona State, and BC probably aren't 50% combined.

Second, I'm not so sure that BC or Kansas gets in over USF. USF's tougher schedule means that they have at least 2nd in the computer rankings pretty much locked up. If USF's a full spot ahead of BC in the computer rankings, then they only need for more than 25% of the pollsters to put them ahead of BC to get in.

With Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville on the schedule, USF should get at least the same boost that BC gets for playing VT twice, Clemson, and Maryland. If there are 3 undefeateds at the end of the season, I think that USF's still > 50% to play for the title.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Wisconsin is same

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Are you serious? I think Wisconsin is way down from last year.

The winner of the SEC title game should get an auto bid to the BCS national championship game. That conference is that much better than anyother.

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guess you forgot about the Pac10


yep...Wisconsin is the same. It's the same team out there on the field.
On offense, they lost John Stocco and Joe Thomas. However, everyone else returned. Tyler Donovan >> John Stocco. The o-line brought back 9 of the 10 players in last year's 2-deep. Add in a year of experience and this offense is much better than last year's offense.
Defense returned 7 starters. The big losses were Zalewski and Stellmacher. The return of Caillas, Levy, and Ikegwuonu as big time players is a big step-up. Elijah Hodge is more than a capable replacement of Stellmacher, but has had nagging injury issues. The front 7, on the whole, is more talented and experienced than last year's group. The only area where the Badgers are worse than last year are the safeties and that isn't enough to completely negate the other improvements.

All in all, this Wisconsin team is just as good as last year's Wisconsin team. What gives, then?
The rest of the Big11Ten improved and the schedule wasn't as favorable. Penn St and Illinois (the 2 losses) are noticeably better than last year and the Badgers had to face both on the road instead of Camp Randall. (Michigan St, one of the close wins, is also a much improved team over the bottom of the Big11Ten teams that Wisconsin faced last year. Iowa is pretty much the same and Wisconsin eeked out a win verse them this year just as they did last year.)

Wisconsin is the exact case to look at to see how the depth of the Big11Ten is so much stronger than last year. They provide the case to show how the same team's results can differ from one year to the next. The Big11Ten is still not upto the SEC or Pac10, but it's much more sturdy than last season.

[Jazzy3113]

the top 5 (OSU, USF, BC, LSU, OU)

I had some time after lunch today and I think that this year its going to be another disputed BCS title game. Besides OU, who of the remaing 4 will not lose a game? Maybe LSU. I strongly feel USF will lose at least once, and I'm confident OSU and BC will fall at least once.

South Carolina will at least lose once, definately to Fla. Kentucky has one hell of a final 4 games. Arizona State still has Oregon and USC left to play.

I personally feel like West Virginia needs to be strongly considered as a potential threat for the national title.
Have you guys heard of the argument of "losing at the right time"? I think if WVU wins handily and can get by Louiville and Cincy they might be able to LSU, who I think might lose one more time.

Anyway, the final conclusion is avoid betting these future props cause its gonna be a mess. Just enjoy the games at a careful distance!

[NajdorfDefense]

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Is S. Florida a good buy at 12:1?

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No,

and BC and Kansas won't get in ahead of USF. Computers have them way ahead for a reason. Pollsters won't drop them if they run the table, they can only rise.
AzSt could be a spoiler if they beat Cal, Ore, USC, UCLA, etc. LOL.

[iggymcfly]

I don't really think "improved strength of the Big Ten" is really valid to describe Wisconsin's poor results this year. Just look at the non-conference results for proof:

<u>2006</u>
Def. Bowling Green 35-14
Def. Western Illinois 34-10
Def. San Diego State 14-0
Def. Buffalo 35-3
Def. Arkansas 17-14

<u>2007</u>
Def. Washington State 42-21
Def. UNLV 20-13
Def. Citadel 45-31

Do you really think that this year's team could compete with the Hogs team that won the SEC West last year? Can you imagine last year's 12-1 team struggling with a mid-level I-AA team? I'm guessing the answer's no on both counts.

Actually, the biggest weakness for the Badgers this year has been pass defense where surprise surprise, they graduated their top three safeties and had to start two true sophomores. This team really isn't as good as last year's squad. Of course, the schedule is still tougher this season and I think last year's team might be 5-2 with this schedule as well.

[MyTurn2Raise]

i think the 3 non-conf games align nicely with last year's first 3 non-conf games

defense is worse, but offense is better

beating Wazzu &gt; Bowling Green
win @ UNLV = win v SDST (recall this game was 0-0 halfway into the 3rd qtr in Camp Randall)
beating Citadel &lt; WIU
accounting for the fashion of the games and quality of opponents

Give this year's squad 5 more games and a month of practice before a bowl and I can see them competing v a team the caliber of Arkansas last year

I actually think this year's Wisconsin team is a little better than last year's squad

[BobJoeJim]

This thread seems like an appropriate place for me to cross-post from sporting events. These numbers are based entirely on Sagarin's "predictor" rating, so take them with a large grain of salt, but it's probably better than making up probabilities off the top of your head [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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And then there were six...

Like last week, I projected spreads for every remaining game for each of the six undefeateds using Sagrin's predictor ratings, then converted those spreads to *rough* win likelihoods based on spread to moneyline conversions at bookmaker.com. Here's each team's remaining schedule, odds of winning each game, and odds of winning out:

OHIO STATE:
Michigan State: 93%
@ Penn State: 76.5%
Wisconsin: 94%
Illinois: 91%
@ Michigan: 80.2%
Undefeated: 48.8%

HAWAII:
New Mexico State: 94.5%
Fresno State: 85.5%
@ Nevada: 79.5%
Boise State: 51%
Washington: 69.5%
Undefeated: 22.8%

SOUTH FLORIDA:
@ Rutgers: 68.5%
@ Connecticut: 70%
Cincinnati: 64%
@ Louisville: 75%
Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
@ Pittsburgh: 93.5%
Undefeated: 21.5%

KANSAS:
@ Colorado: 85%
@ Texas A&amp;M: 88%
Nebraska: 94%
@ Oklahoma State: 80%
Iowa State: 100%
Missouri (neutral field): 75%
Oklahoma (presumed Big12 Title Game opponent): 27%
Undefeated: 11.4%

BOSTON COLLEGE:
@ Virginia Tech: 51%
Florida State: 73%
@ Maryland: 60%
@ Clemson: 65.5%
Miami (FL): 81.5%
Virginia Tech (Presumed title game opponent): 61%
Undefeated: 7.3%

ARIZONA STATE:
California: 72.5%
@ Oregon: 25.5%
@ UCLA: 53%
USC: 81.2%
Arizona: 91%
Undefeated: 7.2%

And as a bonus: three one-loss teams (I'll probably calculate South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia out later as well)

OKLAHOMA:
@ Iowa State: 100%
Texas A&amp;M: 94%
Baylor: 100%
@ Texas Tech: 74.5%
Oklahoma State: 92.5%
Kansas (presumed opponent): 73%
One Loss: 47.3%

OREGON:
@ Washington: 83.5%
USC: 89.5%
Arizona State: 74.5%
@ Arizona: 90.5%
@ UCLA: 70.5%
Oregon State: 89%
One Loss: 31.6%

LSU:
Auburn: 79.5%
@ Alabama: 84%
Louisiana Tech: 98.5%
@ Mississippi: 91%
Arkansas: 89%
Florida (presumed opponent): 56%
One Loss: 29.8%

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