Easy money on Matchbook (AL East future)

[iggymcfly]

Going into the day, Baseball Prospectus had the Yankees as 19% to win the AL East. That was before they lost to Toronto which is pretty significant for a trailing team with only 6 games left in the season. Now, you can still bet the Yankees to lose or the Red Sox to win at -450 which is better than the price should have been before the loss.

I've got a pretty large position on the Red Sox winning the AL East that I've been accumulating over the last couple weeks, so I'm kind of hesitant to put any more money down, but I thought the forum might appreciate the info.

[sirio11]

Yeah, I bought some Boston days ago, couldn't believe they were at 61.

Do you know what happen if Boston and the Yanks tie? Extra-game?

[crockpot]

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Do you know what happen if Boston and the Yanks tie? Extra-game?

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yanks win

beware BP, they consider ties as 1/2 win

[iggymcfly]

They changed that 2 days ago. The 19% figure is counting ties as a win for the Yankees.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
They changed that 2 days ago. The 19% figure is counting ties as a win for the Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think the red sox are a considerably better team than the yankees at this point, and that the devil rays are a .466 team going forward, you should really just fade the yankees every game for the rest of the season and get rich that way.

the postseason odds report is really not that useful this late in the year. i blogged awhile back about the reasons why.

[iggymcfly]

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[ QUOTE ]
They changed that 2 days ago. The 19% figure is counting ties as a win for the Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think the red sox are a considerably better team than the yankees at this point, and that the devil rays are a .466 team going forward, you should really just fade the yankees every game for the rest of the season and get rich that way.

the postseason odds report is really not that useful this late in the year. i blogged awhile back about the reasons why.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point. I don't think this is a good bet because of the skill difference between the teams or because of their remaining schedule. I think they're very equivalent in terms of talent (maybe a slight edge to the Yankees), and I think the schedules are about even with Boston getting the tougher teams at home and the Yankees getting the weaker teams on the road.

The point is that a 2 game lead is very difficult to overcome with only 6 games left in the season. If every game from here on out was a coinflip, there would be 3302 combinations that would give the division to the Red Sox and 794 combinations that would give it to the Yankees. The fact that the games aren't coinflips and that the Red Sox and Yankees will each be around 60-65% in each remaining game makes it even more likely that the groupings will be closer, and gives you the numbers reflected in Baseball Prospectus.

If you have some specific reason why the pitching matchups favor the Yankees, then yeah, that might knock it down a little bit, but overall the Red Sox are a great bet to win the division at -450 even if the Yankees are their equal. It's all moot because the market adjusted and -450 isn't available any more, but saying to bet the individual games instead of the soft division line is just silly

[Post-Oak]

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You're missing the point.


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The point is that a 2 game lead is very difficult to overcome with only 6 games left in the season. If every game from here on out was a coinflip, there would be 3302 combinations that would give the division to the Red Sox and 794 combinations that would give it to the Yankees. The fact that the games aren't coinflips and that the Red Sox and Yankees will each be around 60-65% in each remaining game makes it even more likely that the groupings will be closer, and gives you the numbers reflected in Baseball Prospectus.


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It seems like it is you who is missing the point. The Red Sox do not have a 2 game lead. If the teams end in a tie, the Yankees win the division.

If each remaining game were a coin flip, then Boston would win the division 80.6% of the time.

Especially with Manny and Youklis out, I wouldn't touch Boston at -450.

I'm not sure where you get the info that BP has fixed their Monte Carlo simulator. I can't find where it says this, and their PECOTA Monte Carlo is so far off that I don't see how this is possible.

A fair price for the Red Sox is somewhere between -400 and -450. Of course you are gonna see the Red Sox at -500 (or worse) - sportsbooks are not trying to offer +EV or even EV neutral bets. Just because you see -500, doesn't mean -450 is +EV.

[Post-Oak]

Well, a couple of things have already changed since I wrote that.

Clemens has been scratched, and the terrible Kei Igawa is replacing him tonight. Not only is Igawa brutal, but the D-Rays are better against lefties.

On ESPN, the anchor said that both Manny and Youkilis should play tonight (although the graphic said "could").

I also see that BP does put a note on one of their projections (the "regular one") about fixing the tie problem. The 90% they have for the Bosox is just a result of their terrible projections then.

Coolstandings has the Red Sox as 80.2%. You can also use Coolstandings to judge what would happen if every game is a coinflip, and it comes out to 80.6%. I see you did the math, but in the future you can go to the coolstanding site and use the "dumb" projections.

Here are the pitching matchups (definitely subject to change due to late season tinkering):

Red Sox

Gaudin-Schilling
Blanton-Lester
Baker-Beckett
Slowey-Matsuzaka
Silva-Wakefield
Garza-Schilling


Yankees

Igawa-Hammel
Wang-Howell
Hughes-Kazmir
Mussina-Liz or Leciester
Pettie-Cabrera
Clemens?-Burres

The Yankees face 4 guys who have no business being in the major leagues. They also face the thoroughly mediocre Daniel Cabrera. They do get Kazmir though, and he of course is very good.

Hammel 5.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP
Howell 6.80, 1.75
Kazmir 3.54, 1.41
Liz 9.72, 2.34; Leicester 6.51, 1.37
Cabrera 5.51, 1.52
Burres 5.27, 1.63

The Red Sox do miss Johan Santana.

Gaudin 4.52, 1.54
Blanton 3.84, 1.18
Baker 4.29, 1.34
Slowey 4.57, 1.41
Silva 4.40, 1.33
Garza 3.72, 1.51

Available lines:

Gaudin @ Schilling -218
Blanton @ Lester -170

Igawa -158 @ Hammel (was -210ish with Clemens)

If you liked Boston before, you should like them even more with Igawa going tonight. WSEX has Bosox at -455. I am not gonna bet it because I think that is about right.

Hopefully the Yankees will lose tonight, the Red Sox will win, and the Yankees will start to prepare for the playoffs as the Wild Card entrant. That could mean resting regulars and keeping some SPs on relatively low pitch counts (especially Clemens if they want him to pitch once before the playoffs).

I am a Yankee fan, but I have been betting on the Red Sox to win the AL East throughout the season (the odds were too enticing). I haven't even been able to enjoy this latest Red Sox choke job. I hope they can hang on.

[iggymcfly]

FTR, the -1450 being offered today is pretty soft too if anyone's got extra money on Matchbook they don't mind tying up for a week. Just on the "everything's a coinflip" model, the Red Sox are 94% to win the division. Fair line has to be almost -2500.

[Lori]

I haven't researched the bet at all, but it's -1566 on WSEX too for those who are interested.

Lori