QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet

[Reaction]

Your Right. I miss understood. I blame:

Edited by Reaction (Fri Sep 07 2007 02:27 AM)

And my loc
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

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your a math guy right?

what about the rest of what I said?
i'm not too sure about it

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BB:
lose: AA (6), KK (6)
tie: QQ(1)
win: JJ(6 maybe count as 5 hands), TT (6, counted as 1 hand)

doesn't call
AsKs (1), maybe AsKx (0.5)

...

(-2)x(6+6) + (2)x(5+1) + (0)x(1) + (2)x(a-b)

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Are you measuring in small bets here?

In this situation, I think I would basically assume I have SB beat. He is reasonably likely to hold two spades given the action (something like JTs), so I don't think he's calling often. There are a few times he has a pair and couldn't get away, but they aren't too many. So I would essentially ignore his contribution.

The rest is fine if you're trying to figure out whether you should value bet (Positive = value bet).

And the *Yawn* wasn't directed at you. It was a general *Yawn* at the "Who caps TT preflop?" discussion.

[MacGuyV]

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You guys are the bane of kittens everywhere. As limiting as only 50 hands is, I think plenty of 22/10/2.5s cap JJ, TT, AK pf here. SB may be [censored]. A lowball flop like this is perfectly inviting for a guy to 3bang with those pocket pair and with the Q of trump I make it 4 and see if our friend leads the turn. Fire on the river for value.

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His pf capping range is such a small piece of the puzzle it's hardly worth arguing about. The flop isn't perfectly inviting to 3ball vs. an EP pf raiser who got 3bet & coldcapped from the blinds and is now raising a rags flop - what's he putting us on A6? Who the hell cares about a backdoor 3rd nut trump card? Villian is the kitty killer & you're letting him off the hook by betting here.