QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet

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but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

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This isn't an argument for making multiple raises postflop and it's certainly against putting in multiple raises and then folding the turn.

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???????

i thought the whole question of the thread was if we should or shouldn't bet when checked to on the river ... what are you talking about?

[Xhad]

Most of this thread in general and the discussion you replied to in particular were about the flop play.

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Most of this thread in general and the discussion you replied to in particular were about the flop play.

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??

there is like one thread about the turn? ... the only debate has been about if TT is in his range (I initially said maybe ... i think 1 hand out of 6 if fair)
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

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Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

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pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

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*Yawn* Large PFR does not mean large capping range. For most players, PFR goes up due to more iso-raising and value raising preflop. It rarely trickles all the way down to a large capping range.

I also don't cold cap TT from BB.

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

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Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

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pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

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*Yawn* Large PFR does not mean large capping range. For most players, PFR goes up due to more iso-raising and value raising preflop. It rarely trickles all the way down to a large capping range.

I also don't cold cap TT from BB.

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] dude ... lighten up

your a math guy right?

what about the rest of what I said?
i'm not too sure about it

[Bigka79]

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lol @ folding the turn

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yeah i agree i didnt even think about laying it down throughout the whole hand

let me be a little more specific about this question about betting the river. I was not particulary scared of gettin raised by betting this river by anyone but the SB. i knew i was either WA/WB in this entire hand and was wondering if on the river when i bet would i get called by hands worse than mine.

as far as capping the flop i dont think i can make this play because of the fact it accomplishes nothing being it wont iso or be of a whole lot of value in the long run. i know SB isnt gonna fold to a cold 2 after he has already proven to be able to Cold 2 once.

maybe a raise on the turn was in order instead of the flop i am not sure. but i think i would play this hand (up to the river) the same way every time but am not sure if it is correct.

[Reaction]

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Marginally negative, thus check. Play with the assumptions if you think they should be different.

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You could also work with weighted combos, but I think your % are close. I do think A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could be weighted a lot more after the river check.

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Anyway, say BB has AA or KK 50% of the time, JJ or TT 40% of the time and AK 10% of the time. SB has a random PP or paired the board 75% of the time and hit is crummy straight 25% of the time. BB will call any PP but not AK. What's out EV?

BB wins 50% * -1 = -0.5
SB wins 25%*50% * -1 = -0.125
We win, BB and SB call 40%*75%*2= +0.6
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%*75%*1= +0.00075

Total EV = -0.02425


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This math needs correcting. Those % are additive so:

BB Wins= -0.5
SB Wins= 0.25
These two can combine into 1 calc:
SB Wins or BB wins= 25%(-1) + 50%(-1) = -0.25 + -0.50 = -0.75

We win, BB and SB call 40%(1)+75%(1)= 1.15
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%(0)+75(1)=0.75

Total EV = 1.15

There are also the chances SB or BB c/r and we fold(or call - that pot is huge) after betting
or chance that neither call. But, probably don’t affect the EV too much.

[CrMenace]

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This math needs correcting. Those % are additive

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No, they're not. SB doesn't only have a straight when BB doesn't have AA or KK. Original math stands.

My first label should perhaps have been "BB has AA or KK and wins or SB beats him 50%*-1=-0.5

[CrMenace]

Also Reaction, if you're losing $1 75% and winning $2 25% of the time (very best case scenario) then EV = -1*.75 + 2*.25 = -.25. So something is screwy with your math.

[Sushiglutton]

I would consider capping the flop just to get another cappie from the converter [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Seriously, I think u played well and I would bet the river for value. Is he going for CR here with AA-KK? Or is he scared for the tiny straight? Both seems highly unlikley to me.