Final table move (Live)

[Hattifnatt]

Live tournament at local club.

Buy-in: $85
Entries: 90
Start chips: 15000

Price structure (appr):

1: $1860
2: $1380
3: $860
4: $700
5: $500
6: $360
<font color="#666666">7: $290
8: $220
9: $140</font>

Blinds: 10k/20k, 3k ante

6 players left:

Chips (appr):

Seat 1: 170k
Seat 2: 200k SB
Seat 3: 310k BB (Hero)
Seat 4: 200k
Seat 5: 305k (Villian)
Seat 6: 165k

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 fold, Villian raises to 60k, 3 folds, Hero pushes..

I have a pretty tight image. At the final table I had come over the top once with an all-in raise over a raise, that was SB vs BB.

Villian seems to be a solid tournament player knowing what he is doing.

Like or dislike?

[BarryLyndon]

It's pretty standard - really all depends on if you think Villain is capable of making moves from CO-1. If yes, I'm happy with it. If no, then I wait for a better spot.

[Tackleberry]

Hard to say if one was not at the table, though not knowing the table dynamics or Villains reactions to certain moves before ...

What is obvious for me?

1) Villain is the 2nd big stack - thus it should be hard for him to call with anything but a very good hand as he risks to bust in a situation in which he still would be 2nd in chips!

=&gt; PRO.

2) Folding in this situation still means for Villain dropping his M from 6.4 to 5.

=&gt; CONTRA.

3) You already made this move once before. As this is somewhat spectacular people will have it in mind still.

=&gt; CONTRA.

4) Villain raised while having four active players behind him!

=&gt; CONTRA.

5) Villain gave you (as the bigstack!) odds of 2.7:1 - hard to fold with a somewhat decent hand. This means he was obiously not afraid of a call?

=&gt; CONTRA.

Summarized I still don´t know if Í like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] But I tend to dislike it - as you are the chipleader and may wait for some better spots for a normal steal - and there should be a huge amount of them, regarding the other stacks!

But with an assumption of a raising-range as well as a calling-range for Villain this should be screwed down to a simple math-problem, shouldn´t it?

Can somebody calculate this? A very rough (!!) calculation showed me that the move gets +/-cEV if Villain folds about 60% of his original raising-range!! If he folds less or calls us with more than 40% of his range, we lose chips ...

By the way: I don´t know if the $EV calc makes the move even worse or makes it better.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard to say if one was not at the table, though not knowing the table dynamics or Villains reactions to certain moves before ...

What is obvious for me?

1) Villain is the 2nd big stack - thus it should be hard for him to call with anything but a very good hand as he risks to bust in a situation in which he still would be 2nd in chips!

=&gt; PRO.

2) Folding in this situation still means for Villain dropping his M from 6.4 to 5.

=&gt; CONTRA.

3) You already made this move once before. As this is somewhat spectacular people will have it in mind still.

=&gt; CONTRA.

4) Villain raised while having four active players behind him!

=&gt; CONTRA.

5) Villain gave you (as the bigstack!) odds of 2.7:1 - hard to fold with a somewhat decent hand. This means he was obiously not afraid of a call?

=&gt; CONTRA.

Summarized I still don´t know if Í like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] But I tend to dislike it - as you are the chipleader and may wait for some better spots for a normal steal - and there should be a huge amount of them, regarding the other stacks!

But with an assumption of a raising-range as well as a calling-range for Villain this should be screwed down to a simple math-problem, shouldn´t it?

Can somebody calculate this? A very rough (!!) calculation showed me that the move gets +/-cEV if Villain folds about 60% of his original raising-range!! If he folds less or calls us with more than 40% of his range, we lose chips ...

By the way: I don´t know if the $EV calc makes the move even worse or makes it better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Within this analysis, Tackle, you are underestimating the power of the 3-bet (live or online). It mitigates some of your contras.

I'll give villain a decent range, say that he folds 50% of the time and you pick up 90K.

When he calls the other 50%, you're gonna win ~30% of the time, and when you win that 30% of the time, you're gonna take 1st your 2nd a [censored] huge chunk of the time.

I think that the play is probably slightly -Cev, but in terms of moving up the prize ladder, I think given the circumstances, it's +$EV and you should make the play.

Barry

[Hattifnatt]

One thing I thought about, are you much more inclined to make this move with a weak ace like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than 98o?

That would take an ace of the deck making the probability higher that he has something like KQ (that he prolly folds) and will give us at least ~25% chance to win regardless of what the opponent has when called except when he got exactly AA.

Now its a risk that I run into a high pair like KK and then I am smoked.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I thought about, are you much more inclined to make this move with a weak ace like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than 98o?

That would take an ace of the deck making the probability higher that he has something like KQ (that he prolly folds) and will give us at least ~25% chance to win regardless of what the opponent has when called except when he got exactly AA.

Now its a risk that I run into a high pair like KK and then I am smoked.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that weak aces fair pretty badly against his range. A good chunk of his calling range includes AJ, AQ, and AK, and I want two live cards against that range. I'd let A6o go.

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that weak aces fair pretty badly against his range. A good chunk of his calling range includes AJ, AQ, and AK, and I want two live cards against that range. I'd let A6o go.

[/ QUOTE ]
you get much higer equity vs AQ, AK kinda hands, but you get much lower equity vs overpairs that also is a big part of his range, doenst that make it a better move with Ax than 98o?

[Pokerfarian]

For the A6o v 98o debate, thinking in vague concepts about more equity versus this part/less against this part of his range isn't very useful, just pokerstove it! For example:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.021% 25.76% 00.26% 344065056 3466062.00 { 98o }
Hand 1: 73.979% 73.72% 00.26% 984599940 3466062.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.216% 25.07% 01.14% 293643420 13405896.00 { A6o }
Hand 1: 73.784% 72.64% 01.14% 850760724 13405896.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

As for the hand, I think it's a fold. I think he should have a decent hand because he's committed to calling most of the shorter stacks pushes. That excludes pure steals from his range &amp; means in general his range is stronger ==&gt; not enough FE. The fact that cEV &amp; $EV have diverged a lot here does make it more likely he'll fold but also makes it even more --$EV when he calls, so doesn't help you enough

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
For the A6o v 98o debate, thinking in vague concepts about more equity versus this part/less against this part of his range isn't very useful, just pokerstove it! For example:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.021% 25.76% 00.26% 344065056 3466062.00 { 98o }
Hand 1: 73.979% 73.72% 00.26% 984599940 3466062.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.216% 25.07% 01.14% 293643420 13405896.00 { A6o }
Hand 1: 73.784% 72.64% 01.14% 850760724 13405896.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }



[/ QUOTE ]

I love this analysis. People constantly make the mistake of thinking, "I'd rather have a 98o than a weak AXo" because of domination. But people forget 2 things: 1) You are less likely to be against a bigger A if you hold an A. 2) People who will call you with AJ or A9 will also call you with KQ,KT,QJ, hands against which AX is a favorite.

As for the hand, I question how good/solid this tournament villain is. He has 10BBs is in BvB and there are antes. This is a shove with any hand he wishes to play. Unless he is trying to induce a re-steal from you by raising less than a shove, I don't like villain's play.

[Hattifnatt]

He thought for a minute or so and finally called with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I failed to draw out and was out of the tournament the next hand in 6th place. He said he most probably woulda folded AQ or TT and maybe JJ.

Comments are still welcome.