JJ overpair, ragged flop

[stuartharris]

I don't have a hand history for this, but it's pretty straightforward. I've been at the table for less than 5 mins and know nothing about villain.

UB $1/$2

Preflop: I have JJ. UTG+1 raises, hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, hero calls

Flop is ragged and all less than J (2 players)

Villain bets, hero raises, villain 3 bets.

1) fold now
2) call to save face, fold to turn bet
3) pay $5 more to see
4) other

Any help welcome.

[madscratch]

Against an unknown I'll choose option 2. Your average player is pushing only AA and KK this hard.

[bennyhana]

hmm. I think you should see the turn at least. But against an unknown, your options at this point are to call down, or fold. He did cap preflop from EP, so your range has to include some big hands. I think I'd call down, if noe overs come.

[Niediam]

Most UB 1/2 players play quite straightforward so without a read I'd tend to let the hand go...

[BigBadBabar]

i call down, barring crazy scare cards. his range as an unknown is pretty big. (say pock pairs down to 9 or so, ak, aq, total crap, who knows). if i had a read on him things might go differently, but i'm not good enough to fold it outright.

bbb

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
2) call because I have the odds (with implieds on the turn) to peel, fold to turn bet if I don't catch my jack

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed Option 2. Selecting this.

[AltarBoyCHA]

[ QUOTE ]
his range as an unknown is pretty big. (say pock pairs down to 9 or so, ak, aq, total crap, who knows).

[/ QUOTE ]

really? given the action thus far?
call and fold turn UI.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) call because I have the odds (with implieds on the turn) to peel, fold to turn bet if I don't catch my jack

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed Option 2. Selecting this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only count 9.5sb preflop and 5 sb on the flop, therefore 14.5:1 (less rake). Assuming one raise we're getting 20.5:1 (less rake). Of course, this is less because on the river he could hit his set.

However, if you can cap the turn and bet the river: 24.5:1 (less rake and less when he hits).

Sometimes you'll be able to cap the turn and sometimse you won't. We'll assume that he never hits the river, because it makes my head hurt.

2 outs on the flop = 22.5:1.

x + y = 1
20.5x + 24.5y = 22.5

x = 1-y

20.5(1-y) + 24.5y = 22.5

20.5 - 20.5y + 24.5y = 22.5
2.5 = 4y

y = 2.5 / 4

y = 62.5%

Therefore, assuming that the game has no rake, and that he never will hit his A/K, and that we have no rakeback, an unknown player must three-bet the turn 62.5% of the time (and call down vs a cap).

To be honest I think that we'll get the action taht we want fairly often, and sometimes we'll even get to raise the river, but I don't think it'll be happening 62.5% of the time vs. unknowns.

So, I guess you should just fold?

--Dave.

Edit: LOL! make that 50% of the time... It's a lot closer at 50% than it would be a 62.5%. However, at 50% we're break-even (less rake, nightmare rivers, etc. etc.) so I'd go ahead and fold it.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
because it makes my head hurt.

[/ QUOTE ]

YOU make MY head hurt, Oh, Supreme One!

And, didn't you forget to account for the times you're playing against an overcard-overplaying gill-breather and YHIBOTF*.

* <font color="white"> Your Hand Is Best On The Flop </font>

[DavidC]

LOL! Tricky to put that definition in white. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Almost asked you what it meant. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, the reason that I didn't account for your hand being good on the flop is that you're folding on the turn if you don't hit a J. Essentially his hand, no matter what it is, has become better than yours, as long as he will bet the turn with whatever he has.

--Dave.

Edit: Finally, the term gill-breather made me smile too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]