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#14
08-03-2007, 09:04 AM
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Re: intuition check
Given your OP and thoughts I actually like it quite a bit. What do you do on a K turn? Assuming bet, if he raises what do you do on the river?
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#15
08-03-2007, 09:37 AM
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Re: intuition check
How can this be wrong? You miss no value from worse hands, you avoid spewing when behind, and you don't miss out on protection when ahead because you are confident every street gets bet and you wouldn't want two bets going in anyway. Me likey.
Bet if a K falls on the turn, yes?
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#16
08-03-2007, 12:35 PM
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Re: intuition check
[ QUOTE ]
i think utg's range is KQ AQ AT and some flush draws (A8/A9) combos when he calls the flop. in other words i think he raises top pair jacks on the flop, caps AK/TT+ preflop, and doesn't peel loose on the flop with underpairs not closing the action. [/ QUOTE ] Jacks raise and tens call? That's a pretty fine distinction to be making because they play virtually the same versus your likely preflop range. Only if SB has a jack will it matter that UTG has MP instead of TP. I think you should assume that both jacks and tens will sometimes raise and sometimes call in this situation. Why not KJ, QJ, KT, QT, JTs, T9s, J9s, Q9s, and K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Plus he may go lower than A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Most of these are far below 100% to play this way but they are reasonable possibilities. His range is probably wider than you think it is. If you check the turn he will probably bet Ax+ and take the free card otherwise because you look like KK/QQ. If you bet the turn he will raise KQ, AJ, AT, and JT. The bad news is the 12 KQ combinations are carrying nearly 100% weight while most of the non-ace hands he might have should be heavily discounted. That's an argument for checking the turn. But the pot is 3-handed which greatly increases the penalty for a free card and that's a good reason to bet. I'll end the discussion of the turn by waffling and say it's close. If your table feel says he is the "spewy" type of TAG who usually makes the protection flop raise with any pair then check. If he's a more flexible type who can call with a dubious pair and see what develops than betting could be better. [ QUOTE ] sb is awful [/ QUOTE ] Is he a calling station or more of a loose cannon? River play is automatic. You obviously did the right thing on the turn so keep doing it.
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