intuition check

[milesdyson]

utg is a decent tight tag at like 25/16/2.5, sb is awful.

i think utg's range is KQ AQ AT and some flush draws (A8/A9) combos when he calls the flop. in other words i think he raises top pair jacks on the flop, caps AK/TT+ preflop, and doesn't peel loose on the flop with underpairs not closing the action.

i am fairly sure he will value bet the turn and river when checked to with AQ, Ac9c, and Ac8c (even this river card because he'll put me on KK/QQ)

given this is my turn/river play right?

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11BB

[PokerSparky]

I like your thought process throughout the hand. I wish I could actually take the time to think about my opponents range like this more often. My usual thought process on the turn here is, "I have TPTK. I bet."

[vmacosta]

Miles,
he opened from HJ, right? I'd be really surprised if {K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,KTo+,QTo+,Acxc} weren't in his range at least some of the time. My guess is you are about 50/50 vs. his range.

Not sure if that makes your turn play wrong though. I assume he bets a huge part of his range when you check here, hoping you're giving up with an underpair and not wanting to give the donk a free card. The river check is questionable though cuz he probably checks behind with all the middle pair hands (which you assume aren't in his range but I don't see why not).

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
The river check is questionable though cuz he probably checks behind with all the middle pair hands (which you assume aren't in his range but I don't see why not).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the river check is questionable as played. It's quite a parlay that villain peeled the flop with an underpair, bets this turn 3 way, and pays off. The only hand that we're worried about checking behind (Tx) just improved.

I'm unsure about the turn. Unless villain will make a raise with AQ or something, the only time we really miss value is when he has Tx.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The river check is questionable though cuz he probably checks behind with all the middle pair hands (which you assume aren't in his range but I don't see why not).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the river check is questionable as played. It's quite a parlay that villain peeled the flop with an underpair, bets this turn 3 way, and pays off. The only hand that we're worried about checking behind (Tx) just improved.

I'm unsure about the turn. Unless villain will make a raise with AQ or something, the only time we really miss value is when he has Tx.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol you are right I didn't actually pay attention to the river card. If it were a blank would you feel the same way?

ps you guys are way oversimplifying when you assume every tag raises a J on the flop every time.

[milesdyson]

i think almost all tags do raise top pair jacks here "for protection" 3-way with a player behind.

i also thought he was one seat earlier so yeah there are some more hands in his range. dunno how this affects it really.

[PokerSparky]

[ QUOTE ]


ps you guys are way oversimplifying when you assume every tag raises a J on the flop every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I think a lot of Jx hands are still in his range even after his flop call. This makes me want to bet the turn.

The problem is we really have to call a turn raise IMO. Do we just fold the river UI if we bet call the turn? Do we call the river hoping to see AQ? I think playing conservatively and just check calling may be the best line here, but I'm really not sure.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
i think almost all tags do raise top pair jacks here "for protection" 3-way with a player behind.

i also thought he was one seat earlier so yeah there are some more hands in his range. dunno how this affects it really.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the correct play for him would be to raise Jx for protection on the flop. That doesnt imply he cant have Jx tho.

I also think you need to put in KTs and QTs in his UTG range and the fact that its 5 handed makes your play even more questionable as already mentioned by others.

In general I like your thought proces tho and I am not at all surprised that you would play your hand like this. Whats your AF these days? 0.5 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[sebastien]

i don't understand the check turn 3way drawy board.
why would you check?

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't understand the check turn 3way drawy board.
why would you check?

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the OP?