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#1
07-13-2007, 04:05 PM
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FT bubble of a major
Final table bubble of the $215 2nd chance. SB has an m of less than 2. Villain had been active, but not overly aggressive.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com UTG (t703088) MP (t150982) Hero (t440953) SB (t46232) BB (t356688) Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t40750</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100750</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t703088</font>, Hero ?? 
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#3
07-13-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
Point 1) If UTG is good or just aggro (you say he's been active), he's probably got a wider range than we might intuitively suspect: he knows it's the bubble, he knows he's got you covered, losing this pot won't cripple him to the point of putting himself at risk of bubbling, there's a nice pot he can pick up here, so he's got alot of fold equity because he knows you're not calling without a huge hand.
Point 2) Here's why you should be scared if the villain is a thinking player that's uber-good: he knows that you're aware of everything I just said in "Point 1" above -- which means he knows that *you know* he could be shoving light here, and he still shoved anyway. He did just see you raise him for 25% of your stack on the bubble, so he knows you probably have a very good hand -- and as I said, he knows you're aware of everything I said in "Point 1", which means he knows you can put him on a somewhat loose range -- and he still put you all in. If he's a thinking player, I'd be worried. So I don't know. Without some kind of precise read, I'm probably calling here. I haven't run Pokerstove but I assume it's +EV to call here unless UTG has the tightest of tight ranges, and I don't think we should put UTG on such a tight range. You'd have to give UTG alot of credit as a player capable of higher level thinking to lay this down, IMO, and I'm not giving a typical player that much credit.
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#4
07-13-2007, 05:30 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
Your reraise looks like you are giving youself room to fold if he shoves. I'm sure you probably did this to make him think that you were even stronger, but it may be the case that he knows you would think that it makes you look stronger, but really you aren't, and will fold to a shove.
Your reraise size is terrible considering your hand. If your hand was worse or better I don't dislike it as much, but with AK it's not good. Given that he may be making a bubble play, and may view your raise as giving you a chance to escape to a push, I think you have to call. However, it's a really bad spot that I think you could have avoided.
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#6
07-13-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
the math:
pot odds: 340000 : 460000 = 1 : 1,35 10% bluff 50% underpair 40% AA,KK (correct?) 10% against bluff you win 802500 in 64% you loose 340000 in 36% - EV: +39120 40% against underpair you win 802500 in 45% you loose 340000 in 55% - EV: +69650 50% against AA,KK you win 802500 in 18% you loose 340000 in 82% - EV: -67175 overall EV +41595 even this scenario is +ev if his range is wider AQ,AJ or something like that this gets more +EV only if you give him 75%+ for having AA,KK this should be a fold.
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#7
07-13-2007, 05:54 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
how are you not pushing this... is there a bubble and how many till the bubble bursts?
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#8
07-13-2007, 06:09 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
Not sure why you didn't just shove. There's nearly 60k in the pot. Any c-bet or post flop play is going to suck another 25-30% of your stack at least. Go ahead and race. If he's got KK/AA, oh well, life sucks.
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#9
07-13-2007, 06:38 PM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
I would have probably shoved to his opening raise but even still I think he may just be applying bubble pressure, I don't think I fold here
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#10
07-14-2007, 02:22 AM
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Re: FT bubble of a major
1. at a 5 handed table AK is soooo strong that i think you need to go all the way with it
2. you said he has been active, so his range has to be worse than AK 3. you reraised WAY to small, it was almost a min bet.. even if he has 56s or something like that you are giving him the odds to call 4. SHOVE to his preflop raise. if he folds, you take down a nice pot and he knows to not bet your blinds because you'll shove.
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