What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?

[NickMPK]

I can't believe so many people are answering 90%+.

Out of the last three Main Events final tables, only 7 (out of 27) players did not have a Hendon Mob entry prior to their ME cash. Unless you think this year's main event is going to be much larger than any of those years, I don't see how you can answer 50%+, much less 90%+.

[T-God]

10+

[SEABEAST]

i saw the title and was like "er lol obviously ridiculously high ldo"

then i saw the specifications. if you are counting any previous cash as "known" then in this day and age with many less internet qualifiers this year and that many tourneys now in the history books, i think it's only 10%+

[NickMPK]

BTW, according to Hendon Mob, the prior records of the 2006 ME Final Table participants:

Gold - 9 cashes for ~$100K
Wasicka - 6 cashes for ~$250K, including 15th in WPT championship
Binger - 3 cashes for ~$100K
Cunningham - Top-tier players with many cashes for millions, bracelets, etc.
Butler - No entry (complete unknown)
Lee - One cash for $5600 (I have more career earnings than he did [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
Kim - No entry (complete unknown...though obviously not unknown to 2+2)
Friberg - Two cashes for ~90K (won a tourney in Sweden)
Nassif - No entry (complete unknown)

[rothko]

it is actually impossible. doucy?

[NickMPK]

[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[El Chupacabra]

I hope a dmitri nobles type player wins, that would so incredibly sweet, especially for the inexperienced players watching at home.

[rothko]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[NickMPK]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? No please, explain. Or else stop making pointless posts.

[devilbiss]

50% either it is or it isn't