What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?

[NickMPK]

It seems extremely likely that the winner of the Main Event will not be a 'big name' (e.g. top 100) player.

But while none of the last three winners were 'big names' at the time they won, they all had a decent record of cashes in notable lower buy-in events.

You could find Raymer, Hachem, and Gold on the Hendon Mob poker database before they became world champions. On the other hand, Moneymaker and Varkonyi were completely unknown on the poker tournament circuit prior to their win, although they both competed in much smaller fields.

So, if we define a 'complete unknown' as someone who does not currently have an entry on the Hendon Mob player database, what is the chance that a complete unknown wins the Main Event in 2007?

[blankoblanco]

I went with 30%. I don't think the voters who said 80%-90%+ read the last two paragraphs specifying your qualifications for being a "complete unknown", 'cause that's surely wrong.

[NoPoHustler]

If I can manage to get staked, when I win I will be an unknown so I went with 90%

[eljizzle]

This is an interesting question..

The very nature of the event, combined with the fact that supposedly all the online qualifying donks got cash this year and had to buy themselves in (or not) probably means that the winner will at least be someone with a notable cash on hendonmob or cardplayer...but I still define a huge majority of those people as "complete unknowns."

It's all subjective...I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA. Now granted, the majority of people thought I was the dumba$$ on that one, but just because I didn't happen to catch whatever TV final table he made it to, didn't necessarily make him "somebody."

My point is that if a guy like Bob Bright or Eric Cajelias(sp) or Bryan Devonshire were to win....most of the people watching ESPN will be like "wow...a total unknown wins again!" when obviously...this is not the case...

[Cat]

I think your specifications are a little too precise... I have a couple of entries on the Mob database and I am still absolutely a complete unknown. If you said unknown as in 'a fairly regular recreational player won't have heard of them', then I think it's 90% likely.

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, what a dickwad. amnon filipi (i hope i spelled his name wrong), seriously, who cares about him? (hint: nobody)

[PokerEveryDay]

What is the chance that a complete idiot wins the main event? 99.99%

FYT

[PhatPots]

Given your description, I say it the odds of an unknown winning are like 20%.

There have been a lot of poker tournaments, a lot of people have cashed at some point for some small amount of money.

[The Camel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, what a dickwad. amnon filipi (i hope i spelled his name wrong), seriously, who cares about him? (hint: nobody)

[/ QUOTE ]

So far on this trip to the WSOP I've played with and failed to recognise: Tex Barch, Nick Schulman, Mike Gracz and Shannon Shorr.

Almost all the other players I confessed this to seemed amazed when I admitted it.

And I haven't even heard of Mr Phillipi (I'm assuming it's a man) let alone recognise him!

Perhaps I don't watch enough poker on tv.

[Bullrun]

50/50 ldo