AQ river and maybe preflop/flop/turn

[Heisenb3rg]

EDIT: Oops didnt realize the discussion had died on this pots, should have read the replies first.
At least I got the hands right [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Wow, what a really really crappy hand.

Dude how do you always get in these brutal situations..

PF is the only thing im confident with (call)

Flop.. So close between all 3... Probabily leaning towards fold becaues of player yet to act and your outs being either in peoples hands or dominated.

Turn I would call, but I have no idea how to calculate the likelyhood one of them has a flush draw or your going for a ride on the 3-town express.

River:
These are one of the situations where everything in my intuition is saying, there`s absolutly no way you are good here, there hands are face open... But its online, you have top pair and the pot is huge..
What do you do.. I have no idea. (stupid question mark key is busted [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) The only play that makes even remote sense from the donker is AJ, and the only play that makes remote sense from caller is KK,QQ..
I think this river is a 100% fold if you knew the players.. I just have no way to estimte how often stupid crap happens and the pot is huge.

If this were live full ring I would auto-muck river. Brutal hand

[Oink]

Miles

Seems like you already have all the answers and your river fold is prolly good. In this case it certainly was.

You know the players and you know best whether MP can have A9 or AQ in this spot. I think both of those hands would be silly played on the turn. But TAGs can be bad postflop too, so who knows..?

BTW, preflop is between a cap and a call. I want MP out but I also want to see if he caps. Usually I cap if MP is tight enough. Folding is out of the question.

Flop is close, partly because MP may raise behind and partly because you risk getting sucked into an expensive call on the turn, as happened.

All in all every street is close and its a crappy hand, but IMO you played it well.

[Arenas]

I came to this thread through SSSH digest and I have some comments. I would be pleased if someone could let me know whether I'm right or not?

I really don't like all "good laydown on the river" stuff. Getting more than 14-to-1 means that you have to win this hand only 7% of the time. And I think you will win more than that even in those scary situations.

Otherwise I would fold the flop vs. reasonable players but I'm almost always capping or calling with the intention to c/r the flop in the loose games I play.

I would sometimes fold on this flop when player(s) are acting behind me but I'm mostly raising cause there's a good chance to make MP fold, the pot is getting big and there's a good chance you're still the best. (MP could be easily on two overcards here and won't like to call 2 cold)

I would probably fold on the turn. Pot is big (and that's the most important in this hand) but I need more outs to call two cold here and a players is also acting behind me.

I'd just overcall on the river and never fold. Folding the river for one bet when closing the action in a big pot is a disaster even when I'm almost sure I'm beaten. I'm never folding for one bet here when getting more than 10-to-1 unless I missed my draw.


good varaince

[Mandor_TFL]

Yes I think this is a turn fold for sure due to bad reverse implied odds to hit our str8. Plus almost for sure one of our opponent's hands holds a king giving us at most 7 outs and 4 of those are possibly tainted giving flushes. River is crying call due to the incorrect turn call.

[Heisenb3rg]

By the way, the reason I just call pre-flop is you very well may not want to be knocking the original player out, and your equity edge is very marginal.

Hands that you normally get to knock out from a thinking player are, A8-AJo, KT-KJo (maybe KQo) the only hands you want out are the king type hands. The ace type hands you want in the pot in case you hit both hit a pair of aces and get payed off. You also dont have to worry about an over pair to a queen if you hit your queen..

With a pocket pair pair like TT that also has a marginal equity advantage, you almost certaintly want to cap because all the hands you knock out are good for you.

You are probaibly looking to hit the flop in order to take down the pot anyway.. perhaps pre-flop intiative is worht it im not sure.. Youll be taking down the rare pot you would have folded.. But youll also be furthering your investment when you miss, which will happen much more frequently.. Not sure the value of that.

[PokerSparky]

Post deleted by PokerSparky

[milesdyson]

double gutted on turn = 8 outs plus the chance that i'm up against two AJs where my Q outs are good or up against other assortments of hands that make my A/Q outs good (while perhaps taking some double gutter outs).

also that question is kind of weird to ask anyway. i'm not exactly sure what i'm up against on the turn, but i think i have the outs to call against their hand ranges (because i dont think the donker is 3-betting very often). so i call. but after i call , i get more info on the river. the lead out by MP is all i need to see to realize, "ok well my A outs weren't good that time." it doesn't mean i wasn't going to call if he checked and button bet.

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like all "good laydown on the river" stuff. Getting more than 14-to-1 means that you have to win this hand only 7% of the time. And I think you will win more than that even in those scary situations.


[/ QUOTE ]


Arenas, you will learn that this is a somewhat typical post from Miles - he makes a (results-orientedly) good river lay down in a huge pot, and a lot of people (myself most certainly included) say "huge pot, good 7% or more, call WTF" In this hand, I have a hard time imagining my hand being good after the turn action vs. too non-tilting TAGs, yet at the same time, pot so big, closing action, etc...

One thing to remember is that, in my estimation, Miles is a superior hand reader to most of the posters here, so he can safely make a lot more of these thin lay downs - I can't fold this against most opponents because my read will very rarely be that good (plus the river donk confuses me so much...)

PF, capping this is spewy OOP vs. two competent TAGs (if either is weakish post flop you may get some value in terms of fold equity, but don't count on it now that you've bloated the pot) - you have an EQ edge vs. opener's range, but probably not against 3-better's range. Against different villains (laggy opener, thinking TAG 3-better, e.g.) a cap is certainly in order as the LAG's open means...very little, and the 3-bet is probably commensurate with the tag's top 85% or so of his usual openers in that spot.

[PokerSparky]

[ QUOTE ]
double gutted on turn = 8 outs plus the chance that i'm up against two AJs where my Q outs are good or up against other assortments of hands that make my A/Q outs good (while perhaps taking some double gutter outs).

also that question is kind of weird to ask anyway. i'm not exactly sure what i'm up against on the turn, but i think i have the outs to call against their hand ranges (because i dont think the donker is 3-betting very often). so i call. but after i call , i get more info on the river. the lead out by MP is all i need to see to realize, "ok well my A outs weren't good that time." it doesn't mean i wasn't going to call if he checked and button bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, didn't notice you were double gutted on the turn. Easy call.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]

Arenas, you will learn that this is a somewhat typical post from Miles - he makes a (results-orientedly) good river lay down in a huge pot, and a lot of people (myself most certainly included) say "huge pot, good 7% or more, call WTF"

[/ QUOTE ]
disagree. i used to make threads where i was pretty much positive i made the right choice but also pretty positive that the reaction would be "wow bad fold" just because i liked trying to prove my point. i'm not making these type of threads any more because i don't learn anything and obviously i'm not changing the world's mind. for instance that one where i raised the river with top two pair and got check 3-bet, i think it was like 20:1 or something and i folded and i don't think it was close at all.