Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting for a moment the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not but that's OK.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet. A push might be seen as suspiscious
under these circumstances. Why not try a different tack?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot we could underbet and try to convince CO that we are extracting a little more out of our top pair.


[/ QUOTE ]


Too risky that he'll call. CO has 21,400 left. Hero has 7000 left. It will take all of that to make it "hurt" enough to make CO fold. Any amount less is a wasted bet.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting for a moment the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not but that's OK.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one
option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet. A push might be seen as suspiscious
under these circumstances. Why not try a different tack?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot we could underbet and try to convince CO that we are trying to get the most out of our top pair. It may seem to go against the grain but does it?
Seeing a bet of say 3500 what is CO to think? The river certainly didn't help his hand. And since he showed hesitation on the turn he could be done.
Many times I've seen this playstyle go down in flames when their lack of subtlty has them aggressively push on the river. We can still win this without showing our hand.
No matter the outcome we haven't shown any particular skills playing this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

yea, any bet smaller than an allin will look too tempting to call.

and there are still a few drawing hands that he could have... 89c 78c.. maaaybe 67c?

Anyway, i really like how the hand played out.. i agree with every street pretty much.. (except i said raise to 500 PF, and 5k on the turn) but i think the 4k on the turn might be better, it lets us get a read on the opponent (he thought for a minunte before calling) and gives us considerably better FE on the river (7k into 9k, intead of 6k into 11k)

And after reading the first wave of responses, ive gotten really confident with my first impression to push.

So push!

[fnurt]

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]??? THIS THREAD IS RIGGED

[locutus2002]

Hero should check it down.

Hero is unlikely to have raised the turn so little with AQ giving villain 4:1 pot odds and higher implied odds especially with the flush and str8 draw on the board too.

I would check the str8 and any pair++ if I were villain because I'm thinking a whiffed str8/ flush is going to bluff at the pot.

[mts]

check and take it down, villian has 78 of clubs

lol no clue :[

[AtticusFinch]

Honestly, I don't see how question 2 is necessary. How can you answer question 1 without first answering question 2?

I've said all along that our play looks exactly like a made straight. The only other hand that seems likely from our line is AQ. As Adanthar said, we'd have to be nuts to play a set or overpair this way, and I presume that at this point villain's read of us at least concludes that we're not that crazy.

Here's a hand villain could easily have called the turn with but might still lay down on the river: a set. Sure, he was only getting 2/1 vs 3.6/1 odds for filling up, but sets are hard to lay down, and he could have called based on some implied odds from the rest of our stack, and a lack of complete confidence in his read. His hesitation smells exactly like, "Damn, that bastard made his straight. Can I call?" Other possibilities are a pair with a jack (especially QJ), or something like 78c.

In the low-buyin tourneys I play, I check behind, because I can't credit those players with the ability to lay down a set, or even two pair, EVER. And TPTK, maybe once in a blue moon, but not often.

But here, in a 10k buyin, against a solid opponent, I'd be inclined to push. Villain is far from dead if he calls and loses, but he sure won't be happy. Of course, a more detailed read would come into play, but absent other information, I'm pulling the trigger.

[tpir]

[ QUOTE ]
Question not posed to our panel but I think is interesting: If you were the CO, what range of hands would you put our hero on based on how the hand has played out through the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
If it's not too late I really think you should pose this question to them. I have no idea as to what level the CO is thinking on... but our range on the turn has to be kind of small.

Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.

Anyway, I think it's hard to put us on exactly KJ... and you would think we would have bet a set on the flop. Does he think that J8 or Q9 are in our range? Firing away and putting our opponent to the test is certainly an option...it is certainly hard for him to call with one pair. I just think we get snapped off a lot more than we would like unless he bet a draw on the turn himself and missed. In which case our ace-high might actually be good.

I reluctantly check and save my chips for battle.

[johnnybeef]

I haven't commented on any streets until this one, but I'm going to here because I haven't seen anyone mention this one. Based on the way we played this hand up until now, this is the easiest check in the world. The CO called the river bet fully intending to get all of your chips in the middle. The reason he checked is to induce a bluff from you as the 2d missed every possible draw out there. That said, not pushing the turn is terrible imo.

[TakenItEasy]

With no stall on the Turn bet and a long decision on the call I put CO on QJ

I would put hero on AQ, KQs, TT, 99, AcJc, AcKc at this point.

CO still has a big enough stack to get away from this hand and with those 2 ranges a push will probably take it down.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and I think you are right. What is Bayes' theorem? I hear it mentioned all the time, but I haven't studied it in.... 8 years.