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  #11  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:24 PM
Toro Toro is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

If CO has a set or a straight, he's not checking the River for fear you may check behind, so I eliminate those hands.

I think he started with 88 or JT, more likely JT because I don't think he limps preflop from the CO with 88.

He checked the flop after flopping top pair because you raised and he expected you to bet. Now on the turn, he's not crazy about the queen but feels he must bet. He calls the raise because he's got a "combination" hand, pair with straight draw.

He misses his straight on the River and checks. He's got to fear the Queen. You raised preflop with AJ, why couldn't you have AQ?

Now is the time to put the hammer down and fire that last bullet to convince him you have the queen. Push all-in.
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  #12  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:25 PM
Rduke55 Rduke55 is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

As much as I hate it, I push the river. We showed strength on the turn and should follow it up.
I would guess it looks like a set to the CO and we got nervous when the second club hit. That or AQ or a really, really badly played overpair.
I could easily see him taking a stab at the pot with a variety of hands/draws when the Qc hit. It looks like he hesitatingly called our raise. We did give him about 3-1 to call this. Him having us covered or not, if we push that's still a large portion of his chips.
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  #13  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:26 PM
Sluss Sluss is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

This is why i wanted to push the turn.
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  #14  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:28 PM
Rduke55 Rduke55 is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

Also, is Sossman going to give his take on how he played the hand, his thought processes, and how he would have liked to play it differently if there is a way?
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  #15  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:37 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

I more or less agree with this. With the pot odds you are getting, you need for villain to fold a better hand 30% of the time. All you need is 30%. I am not sure whether or not you get 30%.
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  #16  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:57 PM
Goodie54 Goodie54 is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

Toro, you hit the nail on the head. You said everthing I was thinking but you said it better.

Peace

Goodie
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  #17  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:28 PM
m1illion m1illion is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

Forgetting for a sec the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet.
Under these circumstances what is the best amount to bet?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot under betting could convince CO we are trying getting the most out of our top pair. It may seem to go against the grain but does it?
Seeing a bet of say 3500 what is CO to think? The river certainly didn't help his hand. And since he showed hesitation on the turn he could be done.
Many times I've seen this playstyle go down in flames when their lack of subtlty has them aggressively push on the river. We can still win this without showing our hand.
No matter the outcome we haven't shown any particular skills playing this hand.
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  #18  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:39 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

Well, the nice thing about raising such a small amount on the turn is that it makes it look like we already have a made hand. At this point, the stack sizes work in our favor. A bet of 4K or 5K would be standard nut peddling, but it would be very awkward to bet 5K and leave 2K behind. So going AI is a more attractive option. After putting 4600 in this pot, CO is still happy with his 20K. Taking a 7k hit here isn't going to make him happy if he holds K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think we have 100% FE over all hands of 2nd button or less. How about Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? Can he call if you push? Yes, but he'll only do so 20% of the time. I estimate 80% FE over TP?K. Now we get into the danger hands - two pair or better. I think our FE drops to 60% vs. Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He still lays this down quite often, but he is aware of the bluff possibility. We even have FE over trips. CO's range for our hand should be 99,TT,KJ, or a bluff (if we AI the river). Other hands that we can reasonably hold just don't bet here. AQ, KQ both check behind. So, unless he is just calling our bluff, CO should fold 33 here. Will he? Not as often as he should, and given other trip possibilities, I estimate FE over trips to be about 20%.

So, the problem here is that the CO knows we need the str8 or slow-played trips to be able to bet here. Other bets don't make sense (just check behind). The question is, will he call our bluff? Given the strong way we played the turn (a raise to 4K from 1500 instead of raising more) I think he will fold. In fact, I'm willing to "risk my tourney life" on it.

PULL THE TRIGGER!!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

CSC
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  #19  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:39 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

interesting river.. i think we have a decent amount of FE at this point.. definitely enough to make a push profitable i'd say... we played this hand just like we flopped a set, or turned a straight and i think we can get villain to fold top pair and more here.. . He only needs to fold to the push like 44% of the time to be profitable...

of course if we check we can't lose anymore and can still vs some busted draws (78c is one of the very few i can think of that could possibly still be around)

--

I think i'm leaning towards pushing as of now...

gonna go and read the responses now.
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  #20  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:43 PM
Iconoclastic Iconoclastic is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.
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