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Old 02-11-2007, 03:51 AM
Vorlin Vorlin is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Flop

I've read through the replies so far and noticed that no one has brought up the #1 point in my mind, nor has anyone suggested an unusual alternate play that came to mind.

In order to help our decision now, let's review the pre-flop a sec and try to "translate" the action:

Tight player in the CO says "Limp"... this may mean:

A) I have a monster and want at least the BB to call so I can try to get something for it... with only 3 players left after me, I'm afraid I may get no action. Hands = AA KK and possibly QQ.

B) I have some potential here and want to see a cheap flop. Hands = connectors KQ-JT, any pair JJ and lower plus suited one gaps down to QTs. Add in suiedconnectors down to 98s.

To understand the rest, we have to translate the button as well. Button says "Raise 3x the BB more than a call" (call was 150, raise was 450 more). This usually means a suited 2 gap AQs-KJs, any pair down to TT and any connector down to QJo. AJs is kind of iffy for such a raise when someone has already called the blind, which is why I honestly did think it was the correct move before reading this thread... my reasoning was that we needed to either not play at all or come into it in a way that makes our opponents less likely to get cute with us later.

MJ calls in the SB... this is concerning because he just called 3 1/2 bets cold into a pot that was only offering him 6 1/2 bets, so he was getting a little less than 2:1 when he made his decision. If that didn't send out alarm bells in your head, it should have. Here's my math, in case it's sounding screwey:

BB is in for 1 Bet.
CO limped for 1 Bet.
Button put in 4 Bets.
SB was in for 1/2 bet already.
Therefore, the pot = 6 1/2 bets.

SB still needs 3 1/2 bets to call, with pot odds of a little less than 2:1. He faces at minimum the original raiser on the button so he will definitely be OOP. Including the BB, who has not acted yet, this could end up being a 4 way fight. In order to make this call into a possible 4 way fight for 3 1/2 bets, while OOP and at less than 2:1, you either need a big hand, even bigger stones or a brain smaller than a squirrel's. We're giving this guy credit for at least a few brain cells so we'd better be afraid... very afraid. Our AJ could easily be dominated, if not completely out-classed.

BB folds and so we get back to the CO who calls. Considering the odds he was getting, this is perfectly consistent with our original assesment of his hand. One thing to note is that if he held AA then his move would have been to re-raise again to around 1800 in an attempt to isolate an opponent, most likely the SB who just called 3 1/2 bets cold. Instead, he was content to see this flop 3 way. He could have KK and fear a flopped ace or AA, and be checking out the flop before investing anything more. So, it's fairly safe to say he's not on AA.

Flop comes T93 and is 3 suited.

SB checks... considering that he called 3 1/2 bets cold pre-flop this means that he wants to see if either opponent hit the flop, nothing more. He's a lock for at least two over cards, possibly AA or KK and may even be slow playing trip 9's or 10's. However, if he held QQ or JJ then it's doubtful that he would have checked and put himself in the position of needing to call a bet because that's the kind of situation we all have nightmares about. Better to bet out for at least one and a half times the pot to try to end it right there or get raised... but either way you have to take the initiative here if you have QQ or JJ, so we can say with some confidence that he's not on those two hands.

That brings us to the CO, who also checks. Since he's probably not on AA and he didn't bet out, then we can say with some certainty that he hasn't made 2 pair. Why not? Because 2 pair is too weak to slow play but strong enough to take this down right now. It's pretty safe to say that he's not on T9 and I know that doesn't help a lot but the little bits of info eventually all add up. I'd also say he's probably not on QQ or JJ for the same reasons as above and you have to wonder about KK too, though he may be holding off to see what the button does even if he does have KK.

The way I see it, we have 3 choices:

1) Take the free card and see if we get a draw or pair the ace.
2) Hammer the pot right here for 2x the pot and try to take it down.
3) Get creative... more below.

Regarding #1: WEAK. 'nuff said.

Regarding #2: The pot is only 1950. That may seem like a nice percentage of our *current* stack size but I like to look at it a different way. How large a stack do I need to really make some moves and is this truly going to be a big help in getting me there? For me, at this point, a stack that could allow serious moves and still allow room to absorb a hit or two is around 30-40K. Though this 2K pot isn't chump change, it's not going to be a big step in the direction that I need. Remember the RRR... Risk Reward Ratio. To bet enough to take this down here and now means I'd be betting at least 2x the pot in order to pry my opponents off of it... that's nearly 40% of my stack to get a pot that isn't going to be a big step towards getting me where I need to be... and I have no cards to show down with as yet. Worse, the SB is probably on AA, AK or KK. The Risk is high, the Reward is medium at best and the Ratio sux. Maybe if I had flopped an ace then I might try it, risking being diced up alive by SB in the process, but not with what we have to work with so far.

Regarding #3:
This is an option that I didn't notice above. That's not to say that no one mentioned it, just that I didn't notice it if they did....

There are many, many hands where we look at the flop and loose interest immediately. It happens to all of us. Did it happen to either opponent here? How large a bet does it take to get someone to muck a hand that they have no interest in? If you give them 10:1 with a min bet then no one will fold but what if you bet half the pot or, at these stack sizes, even 1/4 of the pot? You're not looking to shove them out, merely to offer an excuse to fold if they were looking for one.

This would mean betting around 500 here. Anyone who was already looking for an excuse to get away from their hand will muck their cards to a 500 bet here and now. This could allow you to thin the field or, rarely, take the pot down here and now. Since most likely hands for the CO are mid-range draws, he'll most likely call, if not raise. The SB will raise or fold, but I see no reason he'd simply call.

This move has two other added benefits:

1) You're fishing for the check raise, cheaply. If there is a snake in the grass, he'll strike. This allows you to slip away from the attempt cheaply, without losing a lot more. This is part of the art of dodging bullets... you get your opponent to fire at your "bait bet" of 500 and this helps you to protect your stack. If the raise is only 500, you have another decision to make and this will depend on pot odds and number of callers. If it's more, muck 'em without another thought and listen to the other guy grumble that he made so little on his great hand.

2) You could become the snake in the grass. Matt Lessinger has done a fantastic job of explaining how to set up a play and this could become one. With a small bet of 1/4 of the pot on the flop you are in a steal position if you only get called. As long as the turn looks like a blank, you could plan to fire a 3/4 pot sized bet after that blank on the turn. Think about how this looks.... it looks as if you WANT callers. You kept everyone in on the flop and then on the turn you're dangling just enough to keep them, while milking them. It will smell like a rat and a wary opponent may bail out, thinking that they're not going to let you milk them. The best bluffs are ones where the opponent feels certain that they got away from you cheaply and this could become such an opportunity... if the turn is a blank.

All in all, I'd have to say that I'd bet 500 as a probing bet to see what comes back around.

Vorlin
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