Weird AA line...

[TheRempel]

This is a hand someone I am coaching played.
MP2 is like 44/18/5.

What do you think of this line?

$200 PL Omaha
Seat 1: MP2 ( $528.16 )
Seat 10: MP1 ( $355 )
Seat 6: Hero ( $208.40 )
Seat 2: MP3 ( $167.94 )
Seat 9: UTG+2 ( $78.40 )
Seat 3: CO ( $170.50 )
Seat 4: Button ( $57.44 )
Seat 5: SB ( $67.45 )
Seat 8: UTG+1 ( $152.40 )
Seat 7: UTG ( $196 )

Dealt to Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes,
Hero raises $12, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets $45, SB folds, Hero raises $192, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises $294, Hero is all-In.

[blopp]

I just give up this flops in general, but vs that villian play is ok.

- B

[cmyr]

it's a line I've taken when tilting or drunk, and I don't think it's +EV vs. any kind of largeish field. Give him a gutshot and another backdoor flush and I could get behind it against specific opponents. What is he pushing here that we're equitable against? TJQK?


and you can coach donators but can't even look over a few measly NL hands? After all I've done for you? At the very least you could stop sitting at my tables. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[autobet]

This play looks fine against a highly aggressive player who plays too many hands. Also, he has gotten to see the other two players show no interest.

[TheRempel]

My primary concern with this line is that you are never a big favorite when called and against this aggro of a player he's going to be calling a lot. People often make incorrect assumptions about laggy players and how thin they bet the flop. Hero's hand is AA here always and it's a multiway pot, so assuming the Villian is bluffing with a hand AA beats or is in great shape against is a huge leak.

[TheRempel]

Sorry I should have said the game is loose-passive. Players checking the flop in position against the PFR doesn't mean a whole lot.

[cmyr]

I think that hero's hand is wider then AA here. I see preflop raisers c/r sets fairly frequently against aggressive opponents, and if he has a good image he might have FE vs two pair. That said, I'd really rather have more then two outs of villian does have a set.

[TheRempel]

Nah. He's never raising anything but aces out of the blinds, which is something he needs to work on. If he has a set he has AAQQ, AA66, or AA22, all of which are very unlikely and give the villian a lot of room to call with a pretty wide range profitably.

[autobet]

I wouldn't suggest this as standard, just something to do once in a while especially when the right player bets.

Standard on this flop would be to bet.

[Troll_Inc]

Working backwards, since we know that MP2 pushed back:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
say MP2 has a set the AAxx hand has a 16% pot equity. I'd say 25% of the time they have a set.

Let's say they are playing some raggedy ass crap and have TTP, I'd give that happening 25% of the time.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
That's a little better 28% pot equity on the flop.

I'll be generous and say that 50% of the time you are just up against Q***, there you are just 47% dog.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

So before MP2 pushes back, there should be some fold equity You'd have a better idea how often MP2 folds to a raise here. For now, I'll guess that it is 40%, but that's probably being generous.

****** Doing some math

So 40% of the time AA hand wins ~$80. That's EV +32.


** OF THE TIMES THAT MP2 PUSHES BACK AND IT IS ALL IN **
60% of the time MP2 pushes, AA comes over the top and of course MP2 is calling.
So AA is commiting ~200, pot will be ~$440.
25% of the time, you have a situation where AA dude has a 16% chance at winning $440 pot, that is a EV of +$70. However, 84% of the time he loses $200...for -EV -$168.

Another 25% of the time its (0.28)(440)-(0.72)(200).
+123 - 144 = +21

50% of the time its (.47)(440)-(.53)(200).
207-106 = +101

Overall for the times both go all in
(0.25)(-98) = -25
(0.25)(+21) = +21
(0.50)(+101)= 50.5
Total + 47


Overall then

60% of time it goes to the flop + 47 = + 28
40% fold equity of $80 = + 32

So pushing here with a reraise on the flop, based on these wild assumptions, and probable fault math, shows that the AA hand pushing nets an EV of +$60.