11R satellite: One of "those" hands?

[True North]

Stars Sunday Million satellite, 11 left, on the bubble. Next one out gets the $70 booby prize; everyone else wins a seat.

Villain is low stack, I'm second low stack. Table has been very tight for the last 40 minutes or so.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t30333)
Button (t23145)
Hero (t17740)
BB (t29760)
UTG (t21390)
MP (t13268)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

Can anyone justify a fold here?

[JohnFR]

I'm assuming everybody at the other table is bigger than both of you?
Also remember if you fold and BB folds, you are now the shortest stack, I think I take my chances here and pooooosh.

[True North]

One of those quirks -- five of the six biggest stacks were at the other table. None of them were in any danger of busting.

[seke2]

Being a sat, this is probably a fold, especially if the table has been really tight and you've been able to steal without much resistance to stay alive. Yeah, you might be 2nd shortest stack, but is there anyone shorter at the other table? And you're not much smaller than Button or UTG either.

If you've been able to steal easily, this might very well be a fold, especially if there's some small stacks on the other table.

Let's assume he's only minraising here with a narrow range of strong hands, like QQ+, AK. You're like, 60% against the range. And there's a real chance Villain has AA here if he's been playing tight. I think your chances of folding here and surviving the bubble by stealing in other hands or just waiting for someone else to make a dumb mistake is better than 60%.

[HerbieGRD]

I could probably justify it but I don't think it is correct

[JohnFR]

seke you do realize you become short stack if you fold this(assuming BB folds), and why would the shortest stack need QQ+ AK+ to try to steal 5 handed? I'm short stack I am stealing a lot more hands than that, depending on play I might be stealing like almost any 2(now I would have pushed, but some people just think anytime they raise they are stealing)

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
seke you do realize you become short stack if you fold this(assuming BB folds), and why would the shortest stack need QQ+ AK+ to try to steal 5 handed? I'm short stack I am stealing a lot more hands than that, depending on play I might be stealing like almost any 2(now I would have pushed, but some people just think anytime they raise they are stealing)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I realize that, but I also realize you're 1 subsequent steal of your own away from being the 3rd smallest stack too.

I guess it would really help to know how Villain has stayed alive so far. When he has raised preflop, has he usually minraised like this, made a standard raise, or moved all in? The minraise scares me a lot here.

[JohnFR]

I agree with you, but OP didn't mention it so I assumed this was his standard raise? If he had pushed the last 5 times, I may change my answer, but I'm still not sure I would.

[True North]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seke you do realize you become short stack if you fold this(assuming BB folds), and why would the shortest stack need QQ+ AK+ to try to steal 5 handed? I'm short stack I am stealing a lot more hands than that, depending on play I might be stealing like almost any 2(now I would have pushed, but some people just think anytime they raise they are stealing)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I realize that, but I also realize you're 1 subsequent steal of your own away from being the 3rd smallest stack too.

I guess it would really help to know how Villain has stayed alive so far. When he has raised preflop, has he usually minraised like this, made a standard raise, or moved all in? The minraise scares me a lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]
The only notable hand saw him limp with aces and pick off someone who pushed a small pocket pair. For the last half hour or so, he's raised once all-in and taken the blinds, and limped marginal hands three or four times. Incredibly passive.

[seke2]

If he's only played 5 hands in the last 30 minutes, this minraise scares me even more.