Why is he not shoving?

[derosnec]

i have 29% equity against this range. i weighted JJ/TT less by only giving them 3 combos, and weighted KK less since it 4-bets pf usually. i included 44/33 because not everyone knows about set mining odds. i left out AKo


AA
KcKd,KcKh,KcKs,KdKh,KdKs
QQ
JdJh,JdJs,JhJs
TdTh,TdTs,ThTs
99,44-33
AdKd,AdQd

[ajmargarine]

That's a pretty doom and gloom range there. I would weight TT-JJ as more possible than KK-AA because of the chance he 4bs pre more with KK-AA. The sets are slightly less possible because he calls with them sometimes on the flop. And you should include 88 in there too, because well, you probably have AK and he doesn't want you to catch up.

So, a good range imo would be 88-KK, 1/2 the AA's, and a few flush draws, and an air hand, and T9 to acct for ridiculousness.

[ajmargarine]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.344 secs 103,604 games/sec

Board: 3d 4d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.146% 54.82% 01.33% 19538 472.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 43.854% 42.53% 01.33% 15157 472.50 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAh, AdAs, KK-88, AdKd, AdQd, AsJh, Tc9d }

[derosnec]

yeah but i think a lot of those hands would push though. well, no point belaboring that. good discussion. i learned some stuff. got the brain to work a little.

[traz]

I think you're overthinking the whole "why didn't he shove" thing