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#11
11-20-2007, 02:40 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this. [/ QUOTE ] I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5. [/ QUOTE ] In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible." [/ QUOTE ] Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued. NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5. 
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#12
11-20-2007, 02:43 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.
They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength. I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.
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#13
11-20-2007, 02:50 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week. They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength. I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.
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#14
11-20-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week. They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength. I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness. [/ QUOTE ] Both marginal, but yes.
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#15
11-20-2007, 03:02 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week. They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength. I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness. [/ QUOTE ] Both marginal, but yes. [/ QUOTE ] When you say marginal, do you mean Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense are marginally better and worse than average, or that Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense is marginally better and worse than Detroit's running game and GB's rush defense respectively? If it's the former, yes, I agree. If it's the latter, then I disagree.
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#17
11-20-2007, 03:09 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week. They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength. I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness. [/ QUOTE ] Both marginal, but yes. [/ QUOTE ] When you say marginal, do you mean Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense are marginally better and worse than average, or that Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense is marginally better and worse than Detroit's running game and GB's rush defense respectively? If it's the former, yes, I agree. If it's the latter, then I disagree. [/ QUOTE ] Given DET's lack of rushing attack - GB will be able to adjust and play against the pass better than #'s would indicate. That will ultimately come down to proper coaching - but GB def is capable of shutting down both the pass and the run. Look at the DET vs. WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down DET. GB has a much more capable offense than does WASH.
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#18
11-20-2007, 03:15 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
Thremp,
Yes, definitely. But it's no longer the #20th best offense going up against the #9th best defense. Sure, GB still has the edge since Detroit won't throw every play, but they do matchup better than if GB had a killer pass defense.
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#19
11-20-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't even close to being true.
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#20
11-20-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't even close to being true. [/ QUOTE ] In fact its the exact opposite. This stuff is WA on the interweb.
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