50NL; TT OOP on 8c6sQsQh board

[wodka]

I voted c/f ... villain is passive so i dont think he would bet with a flushdraw. Dont want to make a huge pot with a pair of tens OOP on that board. If he checks behind on the turn i c/c a reasonable river bet.

P.S.: I would not always c-bet this flop though.

[Nemesis69]

I lead here for half pot. And I'm folding to a raise.

[toddxlogan]

Bet 14ish/fold to raise. Don't think its really too close either.

Check gives villain waaaay too many options and allows him to play his hand perfectly. Don't think villain is going to be raising a 2/3pot with worse here, particularly one who has 12 of his last 23 hands but only raised 2 of them. Thus, bet/call kinda sucks.

[rakes.a.beach]

very clear bet/fold imo.

[bozzer]

i voted for the big bet/fold. i don't think we should get too hung up on the villains lack of aggression so far - sample is small, and he is also playing a lot of hands.

this is a great post cos it's an ultra-common tricky spot. you might have some s/d value but there are draws and you're really not sure whether to pump more money in or show weakness. i think

1) limp-call means there aren't *that* many queens in his range
2) limp-call means that a lot of the draws are plausible
3) line is more consistent with a draw or a weak made hand than a set or a good queen
4) another Q just arrived which makes it less likely he has one, and improves the chances of him calling with worse.
5) our range is strong. i think it's important to preserve this by betting the turn strongly and making sure we're not giving draws good odds. if he wants to shove a worse hand over that then good for him.

[Lego05]

So a lot of people are picking bet 14-17/fold now.

The Qh was a great card for me. There are much fewer combinations that he can have that include a Q now. There are also tons of draws he could have not to mention an 8.


What I actually did was bet $14.50. I likely have the best hand and I'm charging draws.


If he calls I'm shoving river. Now if he shoves I'm getting a little over 3 to 1 so I need to be good 25% of the time....I'm calling there.


His stats are over 23 hands....so I'm largely not paying too much attention to his AF # which isn't very reliable at this point. Not too mention that he's played 55% of hands, which means that his AF is likely going to immediately be much lower anyway. I think he pushes with a draw or an 8 or like 99 often enough that I should call.


Thoughts?


Hands like A8, K8, etc. I included about half of the remaining combinations:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,596 games 0.005 secs 519,200 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s Qs Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.860% 33.01% 00.85% 857 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 66.140% 65.29% 00.85% 1695 22.00 { JJ, TdTh, 99, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KdQd, Kh8h, Ks8s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, 9s8s, AcQd, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8h, KcQd, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, Kc8s, Kd8s, Kh8s, Ks8h, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs }




Without K8 except Ks8s:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,376 games 0.005 secs 475,200 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s Qs Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.788% 27.86% 00.93% 662 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 71.212% 70.29% 00.93% 1670 22.00 { JJ, TdTh, 99, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KdQd, Ks8s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, 9s8s, AcQd, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8h, KcQd, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs }

[Micro Donk]

i voted for bet 14/17 call a shove. mainly because makin a bet that big will pot commit us against him

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
very clear bet/fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]


Don't think there's room for that given odds.