Awful spot with AJ late

True North · #1 02-11-2007, 01:37 PM

$20 Stars MTT, just over 100 left out of 900 starting. I'm about average in chips. Villain has been aggressive with his big stack.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t15121)
MP2 (t4180)
CO (t4636)
Button (t25706)
SB (t26097)
BB (t17218)
UTG (t8884)
UTG+1 (t12806)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t2400, 3 folds, SB raises to t4647, 1 fold, Hero calls t2247.

Flop: (t9594) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t5400, Hero ???

I thought about this for a long time. The reraise from the SB seems very strong. Normally, I don't put him on much that I can beat. There's also a chance he may be making a play on me here, because I haven't been that active recently, thanks to terrible cards and a reasonably active table.

Raise all-in or fold?

HamJam · #2 02-11-2007, 03:54 PM

push/fold preflop, usually fold, and he has to be pretty maniacal to have a hand worse than yours after the flop. id probably fold.

True North · #3 02-11-2007, 03:57 PM

Push/fold with 19 BB? That seems like overkill.

miw210 · #4 02-11-2007, 04:16 PM

I think it's an easy fold on the flop unless you have any specific reads otherwise

HamJam · #5 02-11-2007, 04:19 PM

push/fold after the reraise

True North · #6 02-11-2007, 04:46 PM

OK, thanks.

RobertJohn · #7 02-11-2007, 04:50 PM

PREFLOP

At 400/800/50, you have about 19BBs in your stack, and an M of about 9.

You open-raise 3x after two folds at an 8-handed table, and you’re min-reraised by the small blind.

Reasons To Fold:

· If you fold, you still have about 16BBs which is definitely enough to get back in the tournament.
· The small blind is showing real strength by reraising BARELY anything, out of position, over an early position raiser.
· You’re calling off 20% of your stack with a likely dominated hand without any maneuverability postflop. When you call, you have just a little over a pot-sized bet left in your stack.
· Your hand isn’t that strong in this situation. Especially when you lower the chance that he’s bluffing because a) you have a tight table image and haven’t been active recently b) you raised from EP, so he believes you’re usually strong there

Reasons to Call:

* You’re getting 3.3-to-1 immediately.

Once he reraises, IMO, you have a push/fold decision. You don’t want to invest 30% of your stack preflop just to try to spike a pair on the flop, especially when your Jack or your Ace might not be good.

If you put him in now, you’ll be getting 1.5-to-1 for your money, but if he calls, you are likely to be over a 3-to-2 dog.

I don’t think he’s bluffing often enough in a $20 MTT to justify a move over the top. Despite the good odds preflop after his little minraise, I would still fold.

POSTFLOP

The pot contains 9594, and villain bets 5400 into it, which is about ½ of your stack.

You’re getting 2.7-to-1, and you have middle pair. However, you will be playing for your whole stack, so your actual odds will be ~ 2-to-1. If you fold, you still have 14BBs and an M of 7 – not quite dead.

If you think his preflop range is super-tight (which it likely is, given the action), then you can fold. If you think he would min-raise you preflop with 77-TT and AQ, then you are getting the right price to call, but he would probably jam with those hands preflop rather than let you see a flop.

SteelheadGLX · #8 02-11-2007, 05:22 PM

The pf push is an option, SB has enough to let it go. But I'd fold to the min raise here, Hero's stack is still viable.

Hate to think how many times I've been on the wrong end of this exact scenario/hand.