Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts

[TheRempel]

Well you keep calling it the third nuts when it's really the second (both SF share the same card)... but it's hardly the same as have Qxh on a 4h6hTh board. The chances of either SF being out there are remarkably slim (I think it's less than 5%, but Silent A would be able to give you better numbers). Also saying someone with the king high flush would never do this is pretty bizarre because it happens at my tables (yay party) all the time.

Not sure what games you are playing in but 150BB's is pretty shallow. If I don't have 300BB's on a table within an hour there is usually something gravely wrong.

Whether or not you should lead here is pretty greatly dependant on whether or not you mix up your play sufficiently and lead with worse flushes and sets. I agree that generally leading is the best play. I think you are missing (and it's my fault because I didn't point it out in the OP) that the pot is going to be 40+ BB's on the flop after the button raises a bunch of limpers. When he raises the flop all of the money is going in so there's not really going to be any turn play regardless unless you c/c.

Also, even if the pot was 20BB's on the flop and you lead 10, he's going to be able to make it 50 to go. If you call with a set in that situation it's a pretty big leak unless you are quite a bit deeper.

If the flop gets checked through because you're in a pretty passive game that's not a big deal either. Many hands that would call your small bet on the flop and fold the turn fearing having to call a larger river bet will be happy to get to showdown by calling the turn and river bets. Getting a 10-15BB call on the turn and a 25-30 call on the turn is a lot better than having someone call 10BB on the flop and fold the turn.

Finally I almost always prefer the line that gets your opponent to make one large bad choice rather than 3 smaller ones.

[piiop]

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If we lead and get raised by the preflop raiser, what does this do in terms of us getting calls from sets after that raise (before it gets back to us)? I think it lessens the chances that we get a call there. Also we don't even know the preflop raiser is very likely to have the nutflush, until he bets the flop. The checkraise line definitely will put more fear into the nutflush guy, but I don't think he ever folds anyway. However in the plus column, checkraising allows the pot to be huge back to anybody who just called the preflop raiser's bet (ie sets) and for them to close the action getting good odds on drawing. Therefore I think the checkraise line is actually better in this particular case.

*Edit* Actually the set person won't really be "closing" the action, but clearly looking at a better picture in terms of our commitment to the pot by the time we've checkraised. In my experience, top set (the most likely by far for someone to have) will optimistically put us both on calling hands he's drawing live against, one on the nutflush, the other on 2nd nutflush/lower set, and will go with us 3-way ai IF he's relatively sure a 3-way ai is reliable. IMO the checkraise makes this look much more likely than if we lead, get raised, and then he must call this raise unsure of if we're sweetening the pot.

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No.

If someone has a set they will call a flop bet then call the raise from pfr much more readily then they would if you c/r'ed the pfr.

[piiop]

Ok, so what if I rephrase your question...

We have J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB.

A few limpers, tight ABC player raises pot, sb folds, the limpers call.

The pfr has AA 100% of the time. All stacks are 150-200bbs.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

What's the best line?

I think you should bet 1/2 pot.

[TheRempel]

Ok so let's say this is $200 PLO and the pot is $30 to the flop. All important stacks have $300 at the start of the hand.

You lead $15, get called by one of limpers who has TT and Mr. ABC raises full pot to $90. You both call.

a) The turn pairs the board. The only time this is good for you money wise is when the limper is deeper than the PFR and you cover or when the limper makes quads on the turn and an ace hits the river.

b) The turn doesn't pair the board and the PFR pushes. Unless the limper is really bad he can't call. If he is really bad enough to call the turn getting 3:1 all in he is calling a c/r on the flop anyway.

So basically you are going to end up stacking one or the other with your line but probably not both. Checkraising will get you both stacks the majority of the time. I probably made a mistake in specifying 150-200BB stacks in the first place, that just happened to be how the hand played out.

[piiop]

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a) The turn pairs the board. The only time this is good for you money wise is when the limper is deeper than the PFR and you cover or when the limper makes quads on the turn and an ace hits the river.

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There's only 1 ten, 2 8's, and 2'7s left.

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b) The turn doesn't pair the board and the PFR pushes. Unless the limper is really bad he can't call. If he is really bad enough to call the turn getting 3:1 all in he is calling a c/r on the flop anyway.

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Lol what? Turn goes check, check, pfr pot, i call, you think guy with flopped top set is ever folding there?


Also, what about the times when the pfr doesn't have the nutflush?

[TheRempel]

If the guy with a set is calling the turn getting 3:1 he's going to make the same mistake on the flop getting 2:1. Yes, TT only has 5 outs on the turn. That's still a 12% chance you don't get to stack the PFR unless some miracle runner runner situation happens, wheras when you c/r the flop you are going to stack both pretty much 100% of the time. The money you lose from some hands that might call half pot or whatever on the flop you are going to more than make up for by stacking two people instead of one.

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Lol what? Turn goes check, check, pfr pot, i call, you think guy with flopped top set is ever folding there?

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Uh yeah, if he is a reasonable player yes. Do you routinely call there with no money behind? If he's decent, he's going to know something is up unless you have a bad image since it's going to be fairly clear the PFR has the nut flush. That gives you either a straight flush, maybe king high, or a set. If he's stupid he's going to call a flop c/r regardless.

All that happens with your line is it gives your opponents chances to fold.

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iAlso, what about the times when the pfr doesn't have the nutflush?

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Well I thought I made it clear with 'He has the nutflush with 100% certainity'. There are tons of tight unimaginative nits that would never bet the naked ace in this spot and would check behind with any lower flush.