Am I supposed to bet this?

[CardSharpCook]

BB seems like he's a little tilty, I was surprised he didn't raise the turn.


Dealt to Hero [2d Ac]
amuth: folds
Himalaia: folds
David145: folds
Hero: raises $10 to $20
BB: calls $10


*** FLOP *** [Ad 9d 5h]
Hero: bets $10
BB: calls $10

*** TURN *** [Ad 9d 5h] [8c]
Hero: bets $20
BB: calls $20

*** RIVER *** [Ad 9d 5h 8c] [6d]

[JacksonTens]

How tilty is tilty? Would you fold a 9 here vs you?

JT

[CardSharpCook]

I think he's calling non-aces maybe 60% of the time.

[JacksonTens]

Hmmm so he will call with worse 60%, is he the type to donk here with a str8 or c/r? if he had 2pair would he donk? Situations like this are very opponent dependant. But I usually send a bet out, sometimes calling a raise.

JT

[PokerBob]

bet that [censored].

[kiddo]

Betting A2 on this river is almost same as betting K9. I would bet-call both against most players. And I would always bet against players I knew likes to bluffraise river. I think bet-folding is almost always a misstake.

Im not sure if Im missing something here. Arent we talking about a blindbattle? SB raises and BB calls? Then I cant see why BB should ever fold a decent pair here. Flopbet means nothing, turnbet could be a little bit of everything and riverbet just a small hope we will fold that not-so-good-pair that he now probably put us on. There are players against who I would call KQ on this river when they fire the 3rd time.

[CardSharpCook]

Kiddo, I think you may be right. In fact, when I'm on top of my value-betting game, I don't even think about this one. However, I'm getting a little gun shy lately. What was going through my head is:

1) he didn't reraise PF which up til now has meant he's got no ace and both cards are not broadway. He has no PP.
2) He probably doesn't have the flush, as I can't really imagine him not raising a FD on the flop, but who knows.
3) This makes his hand range all those numbers between 4 and ten, as well as possibly one of those numbers coupled with a broadway card.
4) He'll bluff this river some %age anyway.


Conclusion: I'm probably behind to his non-folding range and given the increased lieklyhood of bluffing when I check compared to when I bet, a check is preferential here.

Are these thoughts valid? I ended up checking, but I'm not telling you whether or not I won this hand as it is the situation which probably came up 2 or 3 times in the past week that I'm questioning.

[smurfitup]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's calling non-aces maybe 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

if this is the case, then a bet here is your best move. the difficulty arises when you determine how to play versus a raise i.e. is he capable of bluff-raising the river? against a possible tilter, and because this is a BvB battle, I'd bet-call.

[Misja]

Check-call induces a bluff. This means extra equity from some hands he would otherwise fold. Add up the bet we save when he is really ahead, and I think check-call is correct here.

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-call induces a bluff. This means extra equity from some hands he would otherwise fold. Add up the bet we save when he is really ahead, and I think check-call is correct here.

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf is he supposed to bluff with