Donk of death the river?

[Grease]

Pretty good 20/40 game at the Borg. The player in this hand is loose and straightfoward. I was playing with a pro on my right who used the phrase "donk of death" to describe loose passives hitting big draws and being afraid of it getting checked through.

I have red aces in the SB.

3 limps to me, I raise, LP BB calls, limpers call.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I lead, he raises, two call, I trey, everyone calls.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises, they fold, and I call (I figure he probably has two pair here, maybe a set? He might slowplay a set and pull the trigger later.)

River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Donk of death?

[piggity]

This seems like a good spot to go for a c/r, unless the BB is really super passive and will not bet his likely 2-pair.

[Munchkin Mayor]

bet out, hope to get raised, obv.

[jkamowitz]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a good spot to go for a c/r, unless the BB is really super passive and will not bet his likely 2-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not raising if you bet the river here.

[pohuist]

Is he a good player? Your raise out of SB is likely 10-10+ or AQ+. You are not betting the turn w/JJ or AK (unless its specifically AsKs, and even then...). So, if he is a thinking player, he should figure that the only hand that bets the turn and checks the river that his 2 pair beats is KK. The probability of you having exactly KK is way below 50%. He checks behind unless he hit a set. Bet and get a crying call.

[jkamowitz]

Grease is also raising QJs and KQs there.

Moreover, a loose-passive has been going crazy vs Grease on every street. There's no way he has just one pair. The only concern is if he was fsd just a Q which is possible considering there were other people still in the pot.

I have nothing against a donk of death, just don't expect to be raised.

[brick]

Donk of Death if he's a thinking player because the Ace is very scary for him given your range.

[pohuist]

I doubt QJs or KQs bets this turn having no flush draw, after being raised with 2 cold calls on the flop. I never said BB is raising, I just think he checks behind >50%.

[MitchL]

Definitely bet. Loose passives love to check the river with 2pair if any sort of scare card comes. There is no scarier card than the Ace in this spot. Your hand looks exactly like what it is. I think his range is probably weighted more heavily towards a set, but losing a river bet here would be very bad.

Edit to add-Actually Im not sure if his range is weighted more towards a set. Even a passive player should be raising any Q on the flop.

[piggity]

[ QUOTE ]
Is he a good player? Your raise out of SB is likely 10-10+ or AQ+. You are not betting the turn w/JJ or AK (unless its specifically AsKs, and even then...). So, if he is a thinking player, he should figure that the only hand that bets the turn and checks the river that his 2 pair beats is KK. The probability of you having exactly KK is way below 50%. He checks behind unless he hit a set. Bet and get a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think the given SB range is a bit too narrow, thinking more about it I would like to reverse my position and agree with those advocating a bet (AsJs/AsKs don't fit with the flop 3-bet, and KK would likely c/f the river so BB checking behind seems likely indeed).