Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?

Bond18 · #1 09-11-2007, 12:25 AM

Villain is kind of between TAG and LAG, had been doing some stupid [censored] like opening 4X in LP and what not.

On the flop the only hand i can see him check calling that contains a jack is JJ, as i'm pretty sure AJdd would check shove a lot.

On river villain thought for a little bit, before firing out a bet that's either leaving room to fold or a value?

Thoughts on this?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t250/t500
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t12563
UTG+1: t11472
MP1: t24756
Hero: t14606
MP3: t12015
CO: t9056
Button: t3039
SB: t9046
BB: t11214

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to t1250, 2 folds, Hero calls t1250 (pot was t2450), 5 folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t3700, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t2000, UTG calls t2000 (pot was t5700).

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t7700, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t7700, 2 players)
UTG bets t3500, Hero goes all in.

Does shoving>calling here? If he's turning any other hand into a bluff here i don't think we can beat it given texture, and if he's thin value betting like a checked set or something calling is going to be a spew.

Mench · #2 09-11-2007, 12:33 AM

How hard has he been firing at flops when he opens. Has he shown a tendency to fire his hits, and give up on his misses or does he know to pot control OOP etc. I could see villain having a QJish hand, and KJ if hes good, AJ if hes bad. If he is the type to open to 4x in LP then he could also peel flop with AJ and try to go for a crai on turn since it hit. That said you can't be repping many Js either, since I'd guess you would fire with AJ on turn had you get the flop with it as you did here with AQ. You could be repping JQ that took a free turn I guess, though I don't know how apt you would be to flat with that pre.

wandigo · #3 09-11-2007, 12:35 AM

In this spot would it be alright to fire again at the turn, say 6k or so with 2nd pair and gutterball? As played, his river bet kind of looks like one for value and I think it's just a call/fold situation

eBo · #4 09-11-2007, 01:11 AM

There's 4 jacks in the deck, and the probability of him having one is way too high for this bluff to be profitable.

T_Mac · #5 09-11-2007, 01:49 AM

I think pushing> calling but folding > pushing

Luisgallo · #6 09-11-2007, 03:54 AM

is he really betting the river without a J?

I like a turn bet much more.

Bond18 · #7 09-11-2007, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There's 4 jacks in the deck, and the probability of him having one is way too high for this bluff to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's to broad and more or less, pointless a statement. What are the hands in his range that have a J? JJ/KJs? How often does he play KJs this way (both be it UTG raise and check call flop.)

I'm not saying this was necessarily an awesome play, but i'll need a better counter argument than that.

More relevant concerns are things like: Would he play QQ/KK/AA/AK this way? If so, is he calling on the river with those hands considering how much he has in? Is he ever turning a hand with SD value into a bluff here due to how scary the board has gotten?

Mench · #8 09-11-2007, 05:08 AM

Bond did you see what I asked. I think a few points I raised help to work out his hand range and what he can show up with here.

ZJ123 · #9 09-11-2007, 05:13 AM

if he folds all sets and two piars then its good... if not then i don't like it. Im having a hard time with what his range is. He could have KJ or AJdd, or JJ or QJ. Its really hard to put him on a hand, i wouldnt shove here, but i dont hate it.

Bond18 · #10 09-11-2007, 06:20 AM

Mench,

Good questions. I hadn't seen the villain engaged in any spots post, mostly his silly 4X LP raises discouraged action or, got him shoved on pre and he folded.

It's quite possible that you can figure out i can't have many J's either, but that would require villain not only putting that together, but then being able to figure i'm willing to turn my hand into an AI bluff here, and then work up the balls to call on a set/two pair having added it all up.