[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep - Page 15

clowntable · #**141** 11-23-2007, 06:07 AM

Thank you for posting this OP. I think I learned something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ranger_Trivette · #**142** 11-23-2007, 08:07 AM

OMG we have a set!
Call.

MichaelBolton777 · #**143** 11-23-2007, 03:22 PM

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ikes, villain has AK and shoves the river for like 300 big blinds. what's he expecting a call from ... A8? clearly there's some point at which you fold this (even getting 2.5:1). 500 big blinds? 1000 big blinds? hero has a set, but hero doesn't have the nuts.

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who said that it was a good push?

2 combos AA
2 combos KK
2 combos 44
9 combos AK

We lose to AA, KK... beat 44. If he plays AK this way 20% of the time... its a call. i rest my case.

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Actually, there are 3 hand combos of AA, KK, and 44, so given your example, he need to have AK 3 of 9 times.

But really, on the river, you're getting better than 2 to 1 to call, so even if he only has a set, it's a call here.

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again, i think this decision should be made once 3 bet on turn, so we are not getting 2 to 1ish, but 3 to 7ish, instead (i guess once you get to riv, you have to use 2 to 1, making the decision a lot harder). Now we have to be right around 40% of the time. Weighting his hand to some degree away from AK, and slightly away from 44 (assuming he might not raise this utg as a 12% pfr), it seems like a clear fold to me at 1/2 against this player...where am i wrong??

Shizzle12345 · #**144** 11-23-2007, 03:30 PM

if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

MichaelBolton777 · #**145** 11-23-2007, 03:31 PM

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Wow thanks so much for all of the discussion on this hand. I had to take a break afterwards and it's good to have all this to read when I get back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To clarify a few things... I didn't raise the flop because essentially I wanted to extract more value from the hand. If I raise here he's probably folding out alot of hands that might pick up a draw // improve on the turn.

I'm in position, and the flop texture is pretty much as safe as can be for a set, I couldn't think of any turn card making my set lose much equity.

I raised the turn for a couple of reasons -- I don't think he double barrels that turn unless it had improved his hand, and if he had picked up a flush draw I wanted to make him pay for it. I don't think the turn raise is bad at all, and I think I'm losing out on value by not raising there.

I remember while playing the hand that I'd ruled out KK because I just really couldn't see someone hitting a flop that dry that hard and leading out, for the same reasons that I didn't raise him on the flop.

--

As far as the turn 3-bet and river decisions go, I agree with the people that have said his willingness to commit 500bb's in this hand is a key factor. He never has AK.

I also agree with the people who have stated that my decision should have been made on the turn.

The turn 3-bet I can definitely see being done with 44 but I don't know if he shoves the river, as he'd probably be scared of an overset when I call his 3-bet on this board.

I think it's very very close, but against this player with these stacks that I should be folding to the turn 3-bet. Again I believe he is never doing that with AK, so he could only have 44/KK/AA at that point.

As played, even with the odds I'm getting, there is so much strength and so many BB's being put in by the villain that I think a river fold is still viable, but sooo borderline.

Benzooor calls $500.45, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $222.25 returned to Danibusman
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Danibusman shows [Kc Kd] three of a kind, Kings
Benzooor shows [8d 8h] three of a kind, Eights
Danibusman wins the pot ($1,658.40) with three of a kind, Kings
Benzooor is sitting out

Definitely the sickest spot I've been in and the sickest hand I've played. I was very surprised to see KK, though.

The day that I can correctly fold to the turn 3-bet here or the river shove while actually playing the hand has not come yet; I only reached that conclusion after alot of hard thinking and it's sickening to think that someone could have good enough hand analysis skills to fold there.

Sick life [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Again, thanks for all of the analysis and comments.

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hey, nice analysis. Dam, i cant believe how much discussion this generated so quickly! i heart ssnl. yeah, i still think after reading everything, that it's a good fold on the turn. Given the turn call, i think you're right that it's extremely close. We now have to win around 30%- still, if we either remove or drastically diminish AK from his range, it may be a fold. Not sure if anyone has done za math w/o AK, but i think it's likely below the 30% -33% we need to win.

MichaelBolton777 · #**146** 11-23-2007, 03:36 PM

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WOW at turning AK into a bluff while putting Hero on a set - lmao, that would be the sickest play of all time.

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hmmm, interesting. i guess if villain were capable of this, it would easily fold it from a fold to a call! prolly 1 in a 1000, though, at least, that a 1/2 player is thinking this way- and would prolly be a poor way to think, as well, w/o a sick read that opponent can fold a set here.

loosbastard · #**147** 11-23-2007, 03:46 PM

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if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

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Yeah, since folding the worst hand clearly makes you a weak player that shouldn't be playing deep.

And while I'm calling river as played (I fold turn...but w/e)...it's certainly not a snap-call. The fact that you think it is makes me think you haven't thought too deeply about the hand. It's a really really sick spot.

Benzooor · #**148** 11-23-2007, 04:02 PM

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if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

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Yeah, since folding the worst hand clearly makes you a weak player that shouldn't be playing deep.

And while I'm calling river as played (I fold turn...but w/e)...it's certainly not a snap-call. The fact that you think it is makes me think you haven't thought too deeply about the hand. It's a really really sick spot.

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I think you've been spot on the whole thread loos. Sickest spot ever though. I'd like to meet the man who folds this on the turn while actually playing.

loosbastard · #**149** 11-23-2007, 04:05 PM

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I think you've been spot on the whole thread loos. Sickest spot ever though. I'd like to meet the man who folds this on the turn while actually playing.

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This is one of the sickest spots I've ever seen.

kaby · #**150** 11-23-2007, 04:13 PM

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Pokerstove doesnt apply because villan doesnt play AK like this every time he has AK. Nobody is saying hes going to fold a set or 2pr, just that he wont play it like this every time.

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no... fail.

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the worst part about you being so smug in this reply is that you are wrong. Like... reallly really wrong. People don't bet/3-bet AK on this turn at the same frequency that the bet/3bet AA/KK. you want to argue with this? seriously?

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what the hell is AK valuetowning 550BB deep? A8?

ikestoys is right that the river is an easy call, however the decision when he 3bets you on the turn is pretty close imho