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#11
09-10-2007, 11:57 AM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
No need to take bad gambles bavause you are short stacked. Push next round after you are blinded down. [/ QUOTE ] What if next 8 hands I am not dealt any premium hands, and any near-premium hands I'm dealt are preceded by a raise. Then, exact same situation, UTG+1, FTA, K9o, except that I have M=3 and only 7xBB, and blinds are about to increase. Do I push then ? Seems like I'm better off pushing now with much better fold equity. 
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#12
09-10-2007, 12:03 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No need to take bad gambles bavause you are short stacked. Push next round after you are blinded down. [/ QUOTE ] What if next 8 hands I am not dealt any premium hands, and any near-premium hands I'm dealt are preceded by a raise. Then, exact same situation, UTG+1, FTA, K9o, except that I have M=3 and only 7xBB, and blinds are about to increase. Do I push then ? Seems like I'm better off pushing now with much better fold equity. [/ QUOTE ] Yeh, push with 7xBB. Saying you would rather have 9xBB is irrelevant. In a round, there is about a 40% chance you will be dealt AQ+, 99+, and you may get better stealing opportunities.
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#13
09-10-2007, 01:07 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
I was at this table..you were quite active and I would have called u here pretty light... Your image has alot to do with this play too. I wouldnt say u were unlucky when someone awoke with JJ. I think this is a pretty clear fold in ur position. Nobody really has a comfortable "M" at these stages of these donkfests anyhow.
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#14
09-10-2007, 04:39 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make multiple threads and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV preflop plays. Your choice. [/ QUOTE ]
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#15
09-10-2007, 05:02 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make multiple threads and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV preflop plays. Your choice. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I don't want to get in the way of the regulars all quoting each other but... is it actually a -EV play? betgo suggesting it's an OK play with 7BB and not with 9BB makes it seem close enough that this is probably +chip EV. I seem to remember a Sklansky thread from back in the day that advocated moving all-in with QJ UTG and 10BBs. It had math that I am too lazy to find and do dumb to redo. Not sure why this case would be much different.
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#16
09-10-2007, 05:20 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make multiple threads and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV preflop plays. Your choice. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I don't want to get in the way of the regulars all quoting each other but... is it actually a -EV play? betgo suggesting it's an OK play with 7BB and not with 9BB makes it seem close enough that this is probably +chip EV. I seem to remember a Sklansky thread from back in the day that advocated moving all-in with QJ UTG and 10BBs. It had math that I am too lazy to find and do dumb to redo. Not sure why this case would be much different. [/ QUOTE ] I think this push is cEV-, but close. Here there is about 2.5xBB in blinds and antes. In Sklansky's example, it is a live tournament with about 3xBB blinds and antes and tighter play. If you have 7xBB, your EV is much better, whether you steal or are called, so even though you have less FE, the push is much more profitable. My style is not to take marginal gambles short stacked and wait for really good ones. I don't think it is terrible to push here if you want to gamble. Your M is 3.6 and you have a reasonable good hand, so pushing can't be more than slightly cEV-.
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#17
09-10-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make multiple threads and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV preflop plays. Your choice. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I don't want to get in the way of the regulars all quoting each other but... is it actually a -EV play? betgo suggesting it's an OK play with 7BB and not with 9BB makes it seem close enough that this is probably +chip EV. I seem to remember a Sklansky thread from back in the day that advocated moving all-in with QJ UTG and 10BBs. It had math that I am too lazy to find and do dumb to redo. Not sure why this case would be much different. [/ QUOTE ] I think this push is cEV-, but close. Here there is about 2.5xBB in blinds and antes. In Sklansky's example, it is a live tournament with about 3xBB blinds and antes and tighter play. If you have 7xBB, your EV is much better, whether you steal or are called, so even though you have less FE, the push is much more profitable. My style is not to take marginal gambles short stacked and wait for really good ones. I don't think it is terrible to push here if you want to gamble. Your M is 3.6 and you have a reasonable good hand, so pushing can't be more than slightly cEV-. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. As long as we agree this is a turbo-push in later position. I take back my mean remark I made about you in the other thread. I am on life-tilt from not cashing in like 50 straight tournaments. (Maybe because I am too eagerly shipping in the case money in spots like this!) [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
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#18
09-10-2007, 05:33 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
I agree.
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#19
09-10-2007, 05:36 PM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
The push is clearly cEV-, but fairly close. OPs image and the way the table was playing also make it a fold. However, the ante is pretty big for online, so you need to do some pushing.
If the hand was somewhat stronger, you were in later position, or had a smaller stack, it is a push. Very easy push from hijack for example. Also, this is a push with any pp, any suited ace, and any suited broadway. Take a look in PokerStove: these hands play much better than K9o.
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#20
09-11-2007, 08:30 AM
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Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o
[ QUOTE ]
You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make a thread and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV shoves. Your choice. [/ QUOTE ] You could replace those kids with something a good deal less obnoxious. Or, you could keep bothering people with them. Your choice.
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