Nasty preflop spot with 77, deep in the stars 5r

[Yoshi63]

This is a hand from tonight's 5r on stars (35k guarentee). At this juncture there are ~35 players remaining and the avg stack is 420k.

No concrete reads on villian, other than that he had been relatively active for the 1 orbit I've been seated with him, once calling a shortstack's all in with 53o (getting about 2-1 from the BB).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t16000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t89755)
BB (t179318)
UTG (t704558)
UTG+1 (t317232)
MP1 (t475128)
Hero (t348598)
CO (t238930)
Button (t456754)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t46464</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t455154</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero...

I need to be about 43% against his range to make this call. What type of range can we put him on here? How much of a random-donk-resteal-range can we include?

[swede554]

At first look this seems like a fold to me.

Vs. a pretty loose range of 55+, ATs+, AJo+ KQs, and two random resteal SC's JTs, T9s, you have about a 43% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,222,585,056 games 0.005 secs 244,517,011,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.936% 43.27% 00.67% 528984996 8164866.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 56.064% 55.40% 00.67% 677270328 8164866.00 { 55+, ATs+, KQs, JTs, T9s, AJo+ }

But that's a pretty wide range and unless you got a really good read on villain being able to resteal light I think it's too wide. And even if this range is correct its basically a neautral EV play and there's something to be said for taking the smaller variance play this deep in the tourney.

[Yoshi63]

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And even if this range is correct its basically a neautral EV play and there's something to be said for taking the smaller variance play this deep in the tourney.

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I might agree about the smaller variance play if I were say, 50% above the average. But as is, I was having lots of success for the past 2 hours as a larger-stack with blind steals and isolation raises, ect.. as the play was rather poor. Being on the wrong side of the avg at this point (left with 300k if I fold), I'm not sure I would turn down the opportunity for a 0 EV chance to double-up. Then again, I have no experience with ICM calculations, so I dunno.

But reviewing this again I agree that this would probably be a slightly -EV call.

[Yoshi63]

Do you think everyone would always shove AA this deep? removing AA from his range doesn't do a whole lot, but his bet was perhaps a bit of an overbet - generally indicitive of the somewhat vulnerable PP's TT-KK, or obviously AK.

[SuperUberBob]

IMO that range is way too loose for a typical player. Unless you have a read, I can't use that range.

I fold here.

[swede554]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO that range is way too loose for a typical player. Unless you have a read, I can't use that range.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I mentioned that.

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But that's a pretty wide range and unless you got a really good read on villain being able to resteal light I think it's too wide.

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