3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 3

[AFH24]

215
220
205
225

[Bushman]

225
221
223
207

[Morphling29]

225
203
209
215

[bmxreed36]

203
205
213
225

[True North]

209
225
211
199/200o

[VarlosZ]

213/214o
220
223/224o
213

[rachkane]

LOL, get a massage for that neck...

[junkmail3]

221
199/200 over
217/218 over
211/212 under

[adios]

213/214 Under

203

206

211

This is a week that I'm probably going to get my cumuppance [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I don't like too many games this week but for the contest of bragging rights why not? I'll probably do a few teasers.

I think the Packers/Lions game will be low scoring. Two teams that don't have very good offenses and a division rivalry game. Last year the Lions won in Detroit 17-3.

The only negative about the Jaguars is that they're coming off a big Monday night win. I think 7 is too many.

Laying 11 points is something I do so very, very rarely. I don't like to bet against the chumps and lay alot of points. But I'm gambling that we're looking at an exceptionally bad chump in the Titans. The Dolphins need this game at home badly and know they have a great opportunity to win. They'll have a lot of motivation to put this one away early and score alot of points. No way the Dolphins take this team lightly. The Titans have no offense. Kerry Collins has been worse than abysmal. My only worry about the Titans offense is Young using his skills to run and put a lot of pressure on Miami. A pretty crazy pick but the Titans are bad, very bad.


Here's something I rarely do as well. Pick a road team favorite in a division rivalry game. I think Smith will be back for the Panthers and will give them a lift. DeAngelo Williams gave the Panthers a nice spark in the running game last week. The Panthers played good defense last week and got beat on a turnover and gadget play. I'm gambling that Chris Sims is showing that he isn't really a very good QB. The Buccaneers have had a terrible time running the ball and passing the ball. They've given up alot of yards on the ground.

[West]

I'm not putting any of my own money down on anything this week, but I'll go ahead with the 3+1 picks.

223 - $400 (Denver +7)
218 - $300 (Arizona - 3 1/2)
203 - $200 (Jags +7)
219 - $100 (Giants + 3 1/2)

Broncos have played the Pats well in recent past, but most of those games have been in Denver. Still, Denver has actually been a quality road team in non division games the past couple years, so I'm going to take the 7 and bank on Plummer getting it together a bit this week.

It's hard to feel good giving 4 1/2 points with Arizona against virtually anyone, but St. Louis minus some offensive lineman might be the ticket. Orlando Pace was upgraded from doubtful to questionable though.

Jags had the short week after a big Monday night win, which i think works against them, but the Indy defense has been questionable so far, and Dwight Freeney among others is apparently hurting a bit. Jacksonville has tended to play the Colts tough, and if they can run on them anything like the Giants did, I like their chances to cover.

I watched a good bit of the second half of Seattle/Arizona last week and thought they looked sloppy and unfocused on offense, like Hasselbeck's head wasn't in the game, although on defense their corners in particular appeared to be playing great. So I was thinking, if they look that sloppy against the Giants, they're going to lose. I vaguely remember the Seattle/Giants game from last year, and my recollection was that Seattle tried to lose, but the Giants wouldn't let them. I chickened out in my straight up pool and took Seattle, but my guess is this one comes down to the fourth quarter just like last year, so I'll take the points. Seattle also lost their starting LG for a while, the guy who replaced Hutchinson, although apparently the guy taking his place is a 1st rd pick from 2005.