Bet Size on the River? NLTRN

Austiger · #1 05-23-2007, 08:07 AM

This hand relates to the other thread talking about when to overbet the river. How much do you bet here (or c/r?) (I know I will get some PF and flop advice too, which is fine. But try to keep the discussion focused on the river bet. PF, he was raising every hand and he was pretty bad post-flop so I took a gamble.)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t1210)
Button (t1790)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button raises to t80, Hero calls t60.

Flop: (t160) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t40, Hero calls t40.

Turn: (t240) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t20, Hero calls t20.

River: (t280) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

Schpacko · #2 05-23-2007, 09:22 AM

280. If he's really that bad, maybe he puts you on a steal and pays you off with a king or an ace, maybe even a Ten. I think a 140-bet or something like that looks much more suspicious.

Austiger · #3 05-23-2007, 11:04 AM

The buy-in is $11 btw.

bluffbetter · #4 05-23-2007, 12:05 PM

On the turn I think he either has a straight draw or nothing, unless you have a read that he bets big when he bluffs but bets very small when he has something good, but I would be surprised if he has a good hand here. So on the river I think you can't bet more than 1/2 pot, beacuse even most loose players will probably not call 3/4 pot or pot with 4th or 5th pair. I don't think the check raise is bad, however. And if you check-raise, I think to bad players it looks like you don't have anything, so checked, and then after seeing their possibly weak smallish bet, you've changed your mind and decided to bluff them, so it's a good play and if they're very loose and aggressive postflop it's the best play.

PLO8FaceKilla · #5 05-23-2007, 12:06 PM

bet 140.
then when you bluff at rivers bet 1/2 the pot.
then when you lead out bet 1/2 the pot.

I am constantly betting 1/2 the pot and it drives people crazy and they can't put you on a hand. If it doesn't work, then i mix it up. But i like to try this first.

RicherThanRichie · #6 05-23-2007, 02:03 PM

I noticed a lot of times my opponets at 11's min bet 2 streets they potted river. I don't know how much this is effected by sample size? Curious if anyone else expirenced this

Anyways assuming I don't have a read like that I bet half pot. Min-bets by these types of ppl usually mean marginal hands or monsters. (I cant see him taking this line with an ace here) The small river bet might get him to pay you off with a king or something like that and he'll still raise you with his sets/most 2pairs.

Raiseren1 · #7 05-23-2007, 02:19 PM

My guess is that he has a very weakish hand. I bet around 100.

akb · #8 05-23-2007, 04:22 PM

I check here. If you lead out for anything after playing so passively your hand is pretty much face-up. He has either been trying to milk you or is on a bluff. If he has been milking you with these small bets he is surely going to try and value-bet the river which you can then raise. If he's been on a bluff then he won't call any bet from you. I think if you lead out here he only calls with an ace, and if you check he bets that ace anyways.

theseus51 · #9 05-24-2007, 07:12 AM

I would've folded Q6 for a pre-flop raise OOP. And on the flop fold, unless you were planning something really tricky. But calling OOP, it's hard to pull off something tricky. Like what were you planning on doing if a blank came on the turn? (I'm just wondering why you called on the flop, unless your plan was to actually hit miracle/miracle).

As for your actual question, I would lead out. His smaller turn bet (than flop bet) means usually he's probably going to check the river. Unless you think he's the type to make a big bluff bet on the river. I would bet out like 200. Something he can make a crying call with one pair.

bluffbetter · #10 05-24-2007, 07:51 AM

I think the preflop call is fine when opponent is raising loads PF. If you keep folding these hands to a constant raiser, they will be making a profit from all your folds. I would guess that if they are raising 100%, you should call maybe 65% if not 75%.