flopped top set...

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I assume I'm definitely beat now, or is the pot again too big to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have? Think about that and then tell me what you think of both river decisions.

[robrobdoe]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point.

I'd say UTG+1's range preflop is AJ+, QQ, KK, AA
BB has a much wider range given I don't have much info on him, and he seems loose - pocket pair (probably not higher than 10s given he didn't cap), broadway cards, Ax, suited connectors maybe

Flop doesn't narrow it down much, UTG+1 could have an overpair, AJ or possibly just overcards AQ/AK, BB could have a J, underset (though he'd probably cap), loosely played pocket pair lower than Js

BB leads out again at turn but just calls raises, no idea what he could have; UTG+1 caps this time, suggesting set of Qs or AQ (with a flush draw?), might still be an overpair

BB leads out for third time at river, and UTG+1 raises. BB could still have almost anything. UTG+1 doesn't seem scared by A, so unlikely to be KK, could still be AQ, QQ, AA. Getting over 10:1 on the call, not knowing enough about BB, and not expecting a raise behind from BB, I think the first call is correct.

After that, with the BB reraising for the first time, it suggests he's hit something (aces up, straight, outside chance of AA); UTG+1 capping means he's a lot more likely to have an overset than AQ. So the second time round, it should be a fold.

Any good?

[MoonOrb]

I think you call down here. It's essentially the same action as on the turn, with the BB leading out and UTG+1 raising. You only fear 3 hands (AA, QQ, and K10). You can't give either villain credit for K10 given the action so far, although QQ and AA might make sense for UTG+1.

With BB calling a 3Bet preflop, 22 or 44 or maybe QJs or AJs or something like that might make sense for him.

In short, I'm surprised if you're behind BB, so it's just a matter of how likely you think it is that UTG+1 is holding AA or QQ. His capping range could easily include any AK or AQ holding.

If you're willing to call 2 on the river the first time around, I don't think you can draw enough of a conclusion from the BB's 3 bet that you're definitely beat. So either fold when it's 2 to you the first time because or call down all the way.

I'm calling here, BTW.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
You only fear 3 hands (AA, QQ, and K10).

[/ QUOTE ]

ummmmm
35 also beats us.
If you look at the action 35 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or KT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] may be played this way if BB is a bit of a crazy player. With 35 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] being more likely as it's an OESD on the flop. This is a possibility you must consider since BB hasn't raised on any street (just donkbet every street) till the river.

[OziBattler]

hand converted. check
reads/stats given. check.
JJ raised preflop. check.
flopped set and played it fast. check
OP came back and answered questions that were asked for his benefit. check.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you will make a good poster.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. all in all this is a very good first post and could serve as a model for other first time posters.

welcome to the micros Rob. I think youll fit in here nicely.

Ozi

[Xylocain]

I think its QueBobs gimmick and we're being leveled. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Xylocain]

:g:

I think I can find a fold on the river, but I'm not going to [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Really, Villans lines pretty much only makes sense if one of the has QQ and the other has AA, but god knows ... the reason Im a bit reluctant to call is that we dont have much hope of closing the action so there is like a 75% chance that well get two more back before its over.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Any good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Deffinately.

I just kinda put that assignement out there to see if you get why 2+2 is useful. A lot of people come on here looking for cookie cutter maxims for each situation such as "the pot is too big to fold". I was just seeing if you were willing to put some work into explaining your thoughts, and not just looking for the simple answers.

I think you will make a good poster.
For what it's worth I agree with your assesment and think the hand was played well and a fold to the cap is the right play.

Though I would probably talk myself into calling the cap on the river in the heat of battle because I'm not good enough to lay down a set. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[robrobdoe]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you will make a good poster.
For what it's worth I agree with your assesment and think the hand was played well and a fold to the cap is the right play.

Though I would probably talk myself into calling the cap on the river in the heat of battle because I'm not good enough to lay down a set. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Heh, thanks guys. I did call at the time, but on review a fold would be better.
[ QUOTE ]
So what were the SD numbers of this guy?

[/ QUOTE ] Checking now (and thinking I should probably add these numbers to PAHud...), they were Went to SD 35% and won @ SD 80%. Further suggesting I was beat.

[ QUOTE ]
35 also beats us.
If you look at the action 35 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or KT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] may be played this way if BB is a bit of a crazy player. With 35 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] being more likely as it's an OESD on the flop. This is a possibility you must consider since BB hasn't raised on any street (just donkbet every street) till the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good read. How it went down:
River: (19.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 31.70 BB

Results:
BB has 5h 3h (straight, five high).
UTG+1 has Ad Ah (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has Jd Jh (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: BB wins 31.70 BB.

Not entirely sure what BB was doing PF, and why UTG+1 capped turn but not flop...

[OziBattler]

Rob, regarding W2SD and W$SD just be aware that you need a reasonable sample size before you start reading too much into them for a particular villian. You can use them but probably only as a potential tiebreaker and/or when they are at/near the extreme edge of the range.