NL25 Blindsteal --> Draw --> Made Hand

[Keitan]

Just to add: On the river it seems like you decide on your bet-size based on the strength of you hand. If that's not the case then never mind the rest of this post.

This is OK within a certain range like cbetting slightly less if you have a monster or when you think villain has hit the flop hard. But it's not a good idea when your bet-sizing can have a great influence on villain's decision. It also makes you more exploitable. For example, would you make the same 4$ river bet with quad Tens? If so, and you think villain knows this that's a different story, but I doubt that's the case.

[sisyphus75]

since villain led the flop: he could be on a draw, or trying to steal it, but he called your rr, so I could possibly put him on a draw.

Turn ck is good, and he could be slow playing his str8. I would ck/call river, and avoid a big pot by leading the river.

[Kasane]

I too think the river bet size is the problem here. Go ahead and bet a "bluffy" amount closer to pot, if not pot. You hit something unlikely that's pretty good, try to get value for it.

I think if you're then c/r'ed, you can safely fold.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned KT as a possible villain hand.

Oh, and flop raise size is too small too. Nothing he donks with folds for 3-1 odds + implied except air... and even then they don't with air is a gutshot or something with some of these guys.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
I would ck/call river, and avoid a big pot by leading the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

considering villain CC the flop raise, and checked the turn, there is no reason to believe you are beat, checking down the trips here is unacceptable

[Savaron]

So there are my thoughts:

Flop: He donked into my PFR, I thought he would like to know, where he stands. I got a "good" draw, lets reraise it to show him, i got something. If i call, I thought he would bet any turn card, if I raise, it's possible to see a cheap river card.

Turn: Oh, now he's checking, I hit my ten, straight draw is now not that good, check behind so see the river.

River: n1, hit my trips. If he got a straight, why does he check twice? So I think my trips are good. Half pot size to call his Q or J would be enough.
Oh wait, now he reraises. Does he put me on a draw which I didnt hit? Straight (thats was right [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ), Flush?
Ok, I got 1$-2$ behind, let's go all-in.

Are my thoughts at least a little bit right? Do u want results?

[Keitan]

Flop thoughts: Good

Turn thoughts: Great spot to semibluff. You've got solid outs and good fold equity. A bet also charges any drawing hands. If he c/r you here enough just fold - you're beat. The fold equity makes the bet very profitable on the turn.

River thoughts: He checks twice because there's a good chance you'll bet even with air given his weak line. Very hard to know what his raise means given your bet-size - respond based on reads.

[YanP]

think your thoughts are ok imo, my only real problem with the hand is if you'd raised more on the flop, (to not give him 3-1 odds) then it makes the rest of the hand a lot easier to play because we can def remove gutshots from his range. and a lot of the time he folds here or to a turn bet giving you two chances to win. Results would be cool for me actually, been thinking about this since i posted earlier

[CrAcK_N_CoKe]

I want result.

[scallop]

Call.

[Antinome]

I feel sick, but call.