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#12
08-20-2007, 01:25 AM
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Re: I is a station.
How are we folding the turn? Two overs, OESD, and villain has a jack here like never. I was thinking it was between raising and folding.
What if I told you that villain's donking any FD (all the way down to 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), any SD (gutters included, even 78), a ten, or any PP over the three? He's probably checking and calling down with a three, 22, and Ax, though there's a small chance he may donk those as well. There's also a chance he called the flop with air, and is outright bluffing here. The above is probably not completely accurate, but the turn donk caught me off gaurd and I had to put him on a range fairly quickly. I felt confident then that it was pretty close, and I still think it is now. Of course, I don't have near the LHE experience of the majority of this forum, so I'm not sure how much to trust my instincts yet. So, 1) given what I've told you about his play, how accurate do you think my read was, and 2) once we do figure out his range, does the rest of the hand play itself out by the math? 
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#13
08-20-2007, 01:43 AM
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Re: I is a station.
lots of these guys bluff pairs on the board but what does calling do for you on the turn? how many outs do you have actually? 1.5 per overcard (which is generous) and 6 outs (straight probably wins 75 percent of the time) for the OESD so 9 outs likely. Think that is generous.
Raise or fold the turn for me. Fold more often than not the first time round. Even at 4 to 1 you don't have the money in the pot to call on the turn.
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#14
08-20-2007, 06:38 AM
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Re: I is a station.
[ QUOTE ]
lots of these guys bluff pairs on the board but what does calling do for you on the turn? how many outs do you have actually? 1.5 per overcard (which is generous) and 6 outs (straight probably wins 75 percent of the time) for the OESD so 9 outs likely. Think that is generous. [/ QUOTE ] Why does he have a full house or the same straight 25 percent of the time ? [ QUOTE ] Raise or fold the turn for me. Fold more often than not the first time round. Even at 4 to 1 you don't have the money in the pot to call on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] why do you want to raise if you dont think you have any equity? fold equity is pretty bad because of the board, villian could be calling down with most stuff (10x, 98, 97, small pocket pairs, jx) and would with a high propability also call a reraise on the river if you just call the turn. Free showdown raise is also pretty bad, just call and pray. If you fold in spots like this in 6 max you are going to be run over
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#15
08-20-2007, 08:01 AM
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Re: I is a station.
Folding the turn is awful against a guy like this. Hero has an OESD + two overcards. Villain sounds exactly like the type who would bluff when the board pairs. I would still only call if you pair up on the river, but you should get paid off if you hit your straight and raise. As played, fold the river. K hi isn't ahead enough in a pot this size to be a call.
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#16
08-20-2007, 08:05 AM
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Re: I is a station.
[ QUOTE ]
Villian was 54/10/.8 over 122 hands. Obv I didn't find out how these numbers apply to 6m, so I disregarded them. [/ QUOTE ] VPIP 54 is obviously much, much too loose, even for 6max. Check out Wookie's 6max stats post.
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#17
08-20-2007, 08:20 AM
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Re: I is a station.
I vary my play all the time so I don't get run over. If I am getting bluffed at here it really doesn't matter because I only beat a worse draw. I lose to an ace. I love it when these guys bluff in these situations and I know it because more often than not they keep bluffing.
Next time I let them bluff and I raise and they fold. I get an extra bet out of them. You may lose the battle but you will win the war. These are the guys that you run over.
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#18
08-20-2007, 08:31 AM
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Re: I is a station.
lol@foldingtheturn.com ..... really... I don't fold the turn if my house is on fire and I have to get out of there quick.
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#20
08-20-2007, 08:46 AM
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Re: I is a station.
[ QUOTE ]
:g: if you intend to call river you should raise the turn for a free showdown. You have tons of outs, you migt fold a better hand and since you intend to call the river you expect to have at least some showdown value UI [/ QUOTE ] Having lots of outs is a reason NOT to make a free showdown raise. You have to call if you get 3-bet, which isn't fun. You make an FSR as the last money you're going to put in the pot UI.
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