Betting Baseball 2007

Senator7 · #1 05-10-2007, 12:10 AM

Has anyone read this book by Michael Murray? If so, is it worth the price of admission?

I was going to post this in the Books/Publications forum, but I figured I would get better responses posting it here.

hoff21 · #2 05-10-2007, 02:35 PM

Definately worth the cash. Even more so if you are a baseball betting noob/novice. Stats and strategies are sprinkled throughout a "diary" of Murray's baseball betting during the 2006 season.

newb411breaker19 · #3 05-10-2007, 06:04 PM

i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored * Pitchers runs allowed / League Average.

I've tried that method for other sports such as hockey and it just hasn't seemed to work well for me, i prefer to make offensive power ratings.
If you are interested in statistics and the sabermetric ideas then this is a real good book for you.

Senator7 · #4 05-11-2007, 12:28 AM

Thanks guys!

TomG · #5 05-11-2007, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored * Pitchers runs allowed / League Average.

I've tried that method for other sports such as hockey and it just hasn't seemed to work well for me, i prefer to make offensive power ratings.
If you are interested in statistics and the sabermetric ideas then this is a real good book for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm neither advocating nor defending Michael Murray's methods. However, it seems like simply using offensive power ratings might work okay for a game like hockey but it's only half of the picture for baseball. Pitching is too important to be ignored in favor of simply offensive power ratings.

rjp · #6 05-11-2007, 07:00 PM

Murray's book is the best available. That said, it wouldn't hurt to pick up Baseball Prospectus and the like to keep up to date with the latest performance measures.

rsigley · #7 05-15-2007, 11:52 AM

i would of like if it was structured better

seemed like a blog with a "post" about methods every now and then

i found a couple errors with his formulas, so i'd double check all of them

rjp · #8 05-15-2007, 03:08 PM

Yes, Murray has posted some corrections on his website, http://www.bettingbaseball.net

newb411breaker19 · #9 05-16-2007, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored * Pitchers runs allowed / League Average.

I've tried that method for other sports such as hockey and it just hasn't seemed to work well for me, i prefer to make offensive power ratings.
If you are interested in statistics and the sabermetric ideas then this is a real good book for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm neither advocating nor defending Michael Murray's methods. However, it seems like simply using offensive power ratings might work okay for a game like hockey but it's only half of the picture for baseball. Pitching is too important to be ignored in favor of simply offensive power ratings.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, that is true offensive power ratings are only half the battle, I use the different theoretical era's as well to evaluate pitching.. i just don't quite like ranking an offense simply through runs scored as I don't feel it is very accurate.. the sabermetric equation will calculate the correct odds for you, however you have to be using precisely the correct "runs scored" and "runs allowed" numbers for that game, which isn't easy to do