Stars 20/180 TPTK River Decision

[erc007]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t1530)
UTG+1 (t1420)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1180)
MP3 (t1700)
CO (t1710)
Hero (t1550)
SB (t1400)
BB (t1500)

Please read the following disclaimer before responding to this post: I RAISE PRE HERE 90% OF THE TIME...

UTG+1 is pokerdogAA, a good player (i think), who won the daily 50 grand last week. Go ahead and flame for not raising preflop/flop. On the flop i thought that MP3 prob had a FD too, so i didn't want to blow him off the hand. When UTG+1 leads again when the K hits the turn, i have to give him > TP here right? Given this read...is the river a fold (getting almost 4 to 1?)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t20, SB completes, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t120) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t100</font>, MP3 calls t100, Hero calls t100, SB folds, UTG folds.

Turn: (t420) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t240</font>, MP3 calls t240, Hero calls t240.

River: (t1140) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t400</font>, MP3 folds, Hero...?

[ShowUthExit]

raise pre.


just kidding... If I limped I'd be raising this flop and trying to narrow down the number of players but you say you don't want to blow anyone off of a flush draw, fair enough. Taking this very unusual/passive line I would def. call river (even though it looks very much like a scared 2pr) getting almost 4 to 1. Playing the hand more aggressively would avoid this type of spot.

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
raise pre.


just kidding... If I limped I'd be raising this flop and trying to narrow down the number of players but you say you don't want to blow anyone off of a flush draw, fair enough. Taking this very unusual/passive line I would def. call river (even though it looks very much like a scared 2pr) getting almost 4 to 1. Playing the hand more aggressively would avoid this type of spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree...this is ironic (see my reply to your QQ post) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[donquay]

since I'm a bit of a station, in the heat of the moment I probably call it.

but given the time to think about it, I probably convince myself to fold...villain bet into a lot of players in a limped pot and continued on turn when an overcard hits and possible straight got there...more often than not villain has to have at least 2 pr...I guess the question is whether it's less than 2 pair often enough to justify calling getting 4-1.

Against a good player I'd like to say I'd fold, and against a random I probably pay it off.

But like I said, during the hand I'd probably call more often than not against almost anyone.

[junyor]

Don't worse hands bet out here hoping we missed a flush draw often enough to make this call profitable?

I prolly pay it off with TPTK but I could be spewing off chips.

-junyor

[hamnegger]

raise pre for value. raise flop . im actually willing to go broke on this flop and i shove the turn. but as played he's showed no fear of 2 opponents and is firing still on the river. i think you are beat.sometimes logic overrides math and logic says tp no good.

[Eratosthenes]

Going with your read on UTG+1: His most likely limp-after-limper hand at small blinds is a small to mid pair + some suited connectors and suited aces. I think the pair is more likely. Based on that starting hand range, his flop bet looks like a set. You have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so his Axs didn't flop the nut flush draw and his bet seems strong for a flush draw with a suited connector, unless it was Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It is also possible that he has limped with J9s or QJs and is betting 2 pair or top pair.

You have to figure that he is going to pay off a moderate bet if you hit your flush, so I'm OK with calling flop and turn.

On the river he is offering really good odds, but has played the hand strongly and I suspect a set. I don't see how we are good here, but a crying call isn't that bad, considering the pot odds.