LC: ICM math question

[Guthrie]

The answer is probably completely obvious, but I want to make sure I'm not missing something critical.

I push on the button, and have SB on 10% calling range, and BB on 15%. SB should have one of those hands 10% of the time, and BB should have one 15% of the time, so the chance I'll get called is 25%, right?

I push utg 9-handed, and put everyone on 5%, so there's a 40% chance I'll be called?

[plexiq]

No,

the chance of being called in the first example is actually:
1-0.9*0.85 = 23.5%

In the second example it's:
1-0.95^8 = 33.6%

However, this completely ignores card removal effects,...

[Insty]

SNGPT shows you the % call values.

plexiq is correct.

This isn't actually an ICM question. I think I decided to call these "Ranged Equity Calculations" in some other post to try and help avoid confusion.

[Guthrie]

I don't understand the logic behind the answer, but I'll take your word for it. Unfortunately, this makes my problem even more unbelievable.

When I push preflop I get called 45% of the time.

I'd have to do some more work to get an exact number, but I can't imagine that I'm pushing into an average of more than two people, since that would mean I'm pushing more often from CO or earlier than from SB, which is highly unlikely.

So, assuming I'm pushing into an average of two people, I'm being called at a rate far higher than expected. I get called by 1% of hands 4.5% of the time, 2% - 5.5%, 3% - 12%, 4% - 13%, 5% - 16%, 10% - 23.7%, and 20% - 32%.

And I have no idea what to do about it.

[plexiq]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the logic behind the answer, but I'll take your word for it. Unfortunately, this makes my problem even more unbelievable.

When I push preflop I get called 45% of the time.

I'd have to do some more work to get an exact number, but I can't imagine that I'm pushing into an average of more than two people, since that would mean I'm pushing more often from CO or earlier than from SB, which is highly unlikely.

So, assuming I'm pushing into an average of two people, I'm being called at a rate far higher than expected. I get called by 1% of hands 4.5% of the time, 2% - 5.5%, 3% - 12%, 4% - 13%, 5% - 16%, 10% - 23.7%, and 20% - 32%.

And I have no idea what to do about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not quite sure if i understand your problem correctly: You basically think...your opponents starting hands are biased to be "better" than random?

My first guess would be that there is some bias in the data. Maybe you are pushing over (trapping) limpers a lot?

About the calculation logic, its not terribly complicated:

We calculate the % of time you dont get called, which is:
0.9*0.85 = 76.5%

And the % you get called is 100%-76.5% = 23.5%

[Slim Pickens]

My guess is that you're actually pushing in to more than 2 people on average. Is there a way for you to check that number?

[KCW12]

What is your sample size? This could just be short-term variance. Also, it depends on the relative stack sizes. If you are constantly pushing as a the short stack, you are more likely to get called.

[rakemeplz]

The logic is pretty simple if say you're getting called 10% of the time and 15% of the time, in total you'll be called 23.5% of the time because 1.5% of the time both will call..

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
The logic is pretty simple if say you're getting called 10% of the time and 15% of the time, in total you'll be called 23.5% of the time because 1.5% of the time both will call..

[/ QUOTE ]

Card removal effects are going to get pretty heavy when you want to get into overcalls of decent +EV pushes.

[bogey1]

[ QUOTE ]

I push on the button, and have SB on 10% calling range, and BB on 15%. SB should have one of those hands 10% of the time, and BB should have one 15% of the time, so the chance I'll get called is 25%, right?

I push utg 9-handed, and put everyone on 5%, so there's a 40% chance I'll be called?

[/ QUOTE ]

In short, no. If, 10-handed, you put everyone on a 50% calling range you're not going to get called 450% of the time...

Each person is going to flip a coin and decide to call if it's heads. Flip that coin 9 times. It's very likely you'll get called, but not 100%. (it's 2^9 ~= 499/500 you get called, 1 in 500 everyone flipped tails and folded).