NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??

[Panic__NL]

Depends on how much he steals if you 3bet here. But as played you will have to fold.


Board: 2s Jd 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.612% 52.38% 00.23% 27484 121.50 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 47.388% 47.16% 00.23% 24743 121.50 { JJ, 99, 22, AJs, KsJs, QsJs, QTs, J9s, T8s, AJo, QTo, J9o, T8o }

[skibbel]

TAGs likes to raise a donkbet at a flop like this very thin imho.

Someone likes b/3b?

[ama0330]

I like a fold preflop. The difference between calling and folding on the flop is whether your ace (or even your ten) is live. Given villain stats I think its pretty safe to say you are drawing to only 9 outs so its really close, you are getting 1.77:1 on your call which means you need about 36% to call. If he has one pair you have 38% equity and if he has a set you have like 27%, if he never has a FD you have 31% equity vs a range of 2prs and sets so you should fold. He has to have a lot of lower FD's and crappy Jacks here to make this a call.