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  #30  
Old 08-02-2007, 01:22 PM
J.R. J.R. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,406
Default Re: Settle this Baseball Argument

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A lot more butns fail then result in infield hits/errors

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Are there stats on this? It instinctually seems true, especially when you consider the negative effect of missing/fouling a couple attempts and having to hit with two strikes.

But Bill James wrote an essay on bunting a long time ago titled something like "Rolling in the Grass" (which, of course I can't find now). His conclusion was that it is correct to bunt a lot more often than he originally thought. The main reason was that a lot of good results can happen from a bunt attempt, aside from a basic successful sacrifice: hits, errors, a fielder unsuccessfully trying to get the lead runner, etc. And the good results outweighed the bad results of an unsuccessful attempt, maybe not in terms of frequency but in terms of degree.

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The Book has some pretty in-depth information on the percentages of various possible bunting outcomes that have occured in different situations.
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