The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge - Page 14

Dima2000123 · #**131** 10-24-2007, 09:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Exponential is definitely not a good fit. A much better fit is parabolic. Here's a couple of slightly different fit techniques and projections for the month. According to this projection, the target would be missed by about $1.2M.

However, I expect a big surge near the end of the month. Don't know if they'll make it. Like I said; $12M for the quarter was too aggressive, imo.

I'm pretty sure I could fit this better by adding a weekly sinusoidal modulation, but I'm lazy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Parabolic is almost never a good fit for projecting the future, and to a trained eye your graph doesn't look like a good fit at all. Polynomials are very good at fitting points, and very bad at forecasting.

Dima2000123 · #**132** 10-24-2007, 09:51 PM

BTW, my donations to Ron Paul amounted to $300 this quarter.

Borodog · #**133** 10-24-2007, 10:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Exponential is definitely not a good fit. A much better fit is parabolic. Here's a couple of slightly different fit techniques and projections for the month. According to this projection, the target would be missed by about $1.2M.

However, I expect a big surge near the end of the month. Don't know if they'll make it. Like I said; $12M for the quarter was too aggressive, imo.

I'm pretty sure I could fit this better by adding a weekly sinusoidal modulation, but I'm lazy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Parabolic is almost never a good fit for projecting the future, and to a trained eye your graph doesn't look like a good fit at all. Polynomials are very good at fitting points, and very bad at forecasting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. None of my "predictions" are worth the electrons it takes to display them. But it's fun to play with data.

I will say that claiming it isn't a good fit at all is a bit much. A parabola + a weekly sinusoid of slowly increasing amplitude is an almost perfect fit for the first three weeks of the month. The past few days have gone to hell though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Borodog · #**134** 10-24-2007, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, my donations to Ron Paul amounted to $300 this quarter.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2630!

Kedu · #**135** 10-25-2007, 12:00 PM

n/m

Ron Burgundy · #**136** 10-25-2007, 12:25 PM

***CELEBRITY DONATION ALERT***

Borodog · #**137** 10-25-2007, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
***CELEBRITY DONATION ALERT***

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. I wonder if it's him?

owsley · #**138** 10-25-2007, 12:41 PM

But I thought the reason that people are attracted to supporting RP was because of his hate speech? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

bluef0x · #**139** 10-25-2007, 06:01 PM

There was an anti-war meeting/protest/get together today at my school. There were about 7 tables with Ron Paul info and just a single guy splitting his table to support Kucinich and Obama. The Ron Paul supporters had numerous hand-made signs and were handing out flyers. It was really amazing to see how much support RP is getting.

Dima2000123 · #**140** 10-25-2007, 08:13 PM

Man, the fund raising for Ron Paul seems to be stalling this week (ignoring that chunk of off-line contributions loaded yesterday). We're on course for three terrible days in a row when it comes to on-line contributions. Hopefully it's just due to donors being tapped out from the recent pushes, and/or saving it up for November 5th.