Peeling the flop for OESD

[Ulkis]

Villain is a solid player, 21.7/8.3/2.1

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

I have 8 outs (4.88-to-1) to make a draw, pot is laying 4.5-to-1 so not quite enough. BDFD runner runner would not be quality, so I don't allocate any for that. I would prefer 5 instead of 10. I don't peel often but now I do.

Turn: (2.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

I realise villain might be drawing too but I've only committed one small bet so far extra and if he bets I can always fold. Can't really see turn card helping my case.

River: (2.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[tyler_cracker]

b/c

[voyamatarte]

Tyler why arent you bet/raising? Is a player like this going to limp with KQ?

[milesdyson]

if he raises he either has the straight with something like J9 or 98, and there's a chance he donkchecked the turn with a flush.

[Bigka79]

[ QUOTE ]
if he raises he either has the straight with something like J9 or 98, and there's a chance he donkchecked the turn with a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

with a 2.1 aggression factor. no way this would take a sick read for him to be able to do this (knowing we are on a draw). my guess is he has a club with a weak pair.

however i aggree with ur b/c line i would do this all the time because this river is scarry and someone with a 2.1 af will bluff this possibly. i think b/c is the line thats my final answer.

[milesdyson]

people will check behind here with a flush because they will think that card is too scary for you to call. believe me. it is a factor to include if you get raised on the river.

[Aaron W.]

I'm pretty tempted to bet this flop.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty tempted to bet this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not because utg probably limps hands that hit pretty hard here, and if he doesn't have one, there's still a chance the other guy does. if it checks around i'll bet a 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 T or J.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty tempted to bet this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not because utg probably limps hands that hit pretty hard here, and if he doesn't have one, there's still a chance the other guy does. if it checks around i'll bet a 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 T or J.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, betting probably isn't so good. I'm still tempted, though.

[voyamatarte]

@ Miles: So the reason we aren't b/3 here is because it is most likely that his raise signifies a chop or some weirdly played flush? Is a 2.1 AG soild player going to check behind his flush?