MLET Challenge: Creemore Springs

[Smurph64]

Table Creemore Springs

bravos1 15bb 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Guruman 15bb 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
bona 15bb A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
stormy455 15bb 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Al_Money22 15bb 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Aussiebattler 15bb 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Thrakkar 15bb 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
22pajo 15bb A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
str8fish 15bb 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]



Guruman posts .5bb in SB,
bona posts .5bb in BB,

Stormy455 folds:

I fold. Preflop hands are evaluated on High Card Strength, Suitedness, and connectedness. With one gap T8o is somewhat connected, but not suited and weak high card strength. UTG needs at least 2 of these properties, and I really like to have high card strength. This does not meet opening requirements UTG.

Al_Money22 folds,

AussieBattler folds:

I fold
Comment: Too far from button to steal with J10o.


Thrakkar folds:

thoughts: already folded 2 hands, but since I posted a blind on one table I am not forced to call (or raise) on any of the other 4 (out of all 5). My hand on Creemore Springs (K9o) is not worth playing from MP1 after 3 folds. Being 1st to enter the pot from MP one should usually either raise or fold. I don't think it's very likely that I can steal the blinds (5 people still to act and SB generally has a higher incentive to call, because you post a full SB). On the button with nobody in yet, this would be different, though. 2 bets is too much for this hand. I am happy that I am not forced to play any hand this round and therefore fold here.


22pajo raises:

My action: Raise
Reasons: its folded to me in CO. i'm making a semi bluff play for the btn and blinds.


Str8fish folds,


Bravos1 folds:

Bravos folds his garbage getting 4:1 in SB (ie OOP).


Guruman folds:


guruman table creemore springs I fold that trash. nuff said there.


Bona calls:

Thoughts:



Ahead or behind is probably a coin flip against late middle position raise. Raiser is very aggressive so I discount it a little bit but not much. Raiser considers himself too loose pre-flop per his posts in 2+2 thread. I'm not going to discount his hand for this though because a) he might not be too loose. or b) he may have recovered. (he is about 21% VP$IP per his stats)



Raisers stats indicate he will raise with about 10% of hands from late middle position. So I put him on 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, KQs, Several in that range may dominate my hand for high card value. A few will be dominated by my hand. IMO High card strength is not a value raise with this situation. It is a call. A raise would probably not induce him to fold any hand I would want him to fold. Straight value= well if I get a straight draw it will probably be a 4 outer and probably not a smart draw in most HU pots. If I do hit the straight on the flop though it will be the nut straight. Edge to my hand here but doesn't call for a raise. Flush draw= dynamite. Speculative but powerful. Big edge to my hand. Pairs= he is ahead with any pair but has a slight negative drawing position against my hand pre-flop with any pair below TT. TT and JJ are probably about even but QQ, KK, or AA is very bad for me. Pair hand = edge to raiser. Not enough to fold my hand but if I miss the flop with this hand I think it all tilts steeply away from me. Not going to be enough pot to make drawing the turn or river very attractive.



If I raise pre-flop and he folds a weak hand it is not good for me. If I raise and he re-raises it might narrow his range but I would still have to call behind.



If I call the pot will be 4 SB. Any additional bets going in will be half mine. There will never be much pot equity here. I should only play this hand a) if I am ahead. b) I have a significantly better draw. c) I think I can push him off his hand. (Will he abandon this pot to a bet because of pot size? Does he think I will? I think my best chance of that will come on the flop. Poor and uncoordinated flop I may check raise to make a pass at it but we'll see. By just calling pre-flop he can't be sure I'm not playing one or two rags. therefore an 8-5-2 rainbow might be good spot to c/r. Two hearts on the flop I check raise as a semi bluff. 3 hearts I bet out lmao. If the flop includes a K that is very bad for me. We will re assess. A queen with no K is great. an A is not bad or real good. re assess.



All things considered: I call. It's the right thing to do!! And it looks like I will check/raise or bet out almost any flop.


<font color="green"> Flop 5sb (2 players) </font>

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Bona bets:

This is a good flop for me. Much better than an ace flop and the 2 or 4 likely didn't hit a pre-flop raisers hand. We are in trouble against AA, KK, QQ, 44, or 22 all of those are in the raisers range I think, with the possible exception of 22 and 44. Would he raise those preflop? Naw. . There is potential trouble if another club hits but we still have back door flush draw. Lets hope he doesn't hold AQc. The spectre of a K falling on the turn or river still looms. Probably the most dangerous card out. K of clubs might be a disaster. I think we are ahead right now though and want to try to build the pot. A check raise might get one bet from our opponent but probably not 2 if we are beating his hand. If we bet and he calls we are ahead and he is drawing. If he raises we still might be ahead and he is blowing smoke or we might be horribly behind and drawing to as few as 2 or 5 outs. Off we go. Bona bets. If raised I expect I'll three bet. If capped I may stop here. Or not.


22pajo reraises:


Flop has given me the nut flush draw and I'm going to push my equity edge and am also in position


Bona calls:

Ok so he must not have raised light preflop? I adjust his range to QQ+, AQ, KQ, QJ, any 2 spades. I can't really put him on AK or AJ or AT or a pair smaller than Queens because I don't think he raises any of those. Whatever it is he really likes it because he just put in 2 to win 6. If he is holding 2 spades he made a good raise I think. If I 3 bet he has odds to call and he will have odds to see the river if the turn misses him. I have sent him mixed messages. He could be thinking I defended light because I only called pre-flop. He could have me at Qx for that reason. I know he is aggressive and would rather raise than call. I also know he may have a better hand. I do not want him to draw with the spades on the board but I don't think a raise here makes him go away. With TPTK I'm not going anywhere yet so: Bona calls. ahead?/behind?


<font color="green"> Turn 9sb (2 players) </font>


8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Bona bets:

Nice turn card. No K no spade. I am now mostly worried about AA, KK, QQ, maybe 88?. 2 pair seems unlikely. AK or AQ still seems really possible. If I bet out here he has 5.5:1 to call. He'll have odds to call the river w/ 2 spades but not with AK. If there was ever a place for a second donk bet, this might be it. I don't think he would raise a draw now but he might bet it because he thinks my hand is weak and/or he is aggressive. A raise from him puts me in call down mode. Any range he puts me on would probably be my hand or less since I didn't raise pre-flop or cap the flop. I probably have a better hand than he thinks I do. If I check, I think he will bet. So check raise worst case costs me 4 to go to SD. Or I can check/call to showdown from here for 2. I can bet/call and call the river for 3. My prospects are a little better now since no spade fell but I'm not sure they are 50/50. Of course he could hold QJs or like that and he is drawing dead. At this point he must have a K, 2 spades, or a pair to have any draw at all and he is drawing thin without 2 spades. To be ahead he must have AA, KK, QQ, 88, 44, or 22., or unlikely 2 pair. Considering he is not super tight I think I'm ahead more than half the time. I'm going to bet out here. If he just calls OK. If he raises I will call down in pain. Bona bets thinking he is ahead!


22pajo calls:


Call. Pot is offering me 5.5:1 and I'm drawing to the nut flush draw. Clear call here for me.


<font color="green"> River 6.5bb (2 players) </font>

5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


Bona bets:


Nice river card for me I think. I have been waffling since the flop because of the flush possibilities but now the only hands he could be holding that beat me are 2 pair, (unlikely given his pre-flop raise) set (unlikely given he just called the turn), AA, KK, are possible but I think he would have raised the turn? Small straight is possible but I consider it very unlikely given his pre-flop raise. Set of 5's......Naaah. He's not raising along with pocket 5's.

If I were Pajo I would probably read me at this point for a weaker hand than I have. Maybe a small or medium pair, or maybe Queens with a lower kicker. Or he could be ahead but afraid of Q8. So he could have second best hand and have to call.

For my part playing this hand out of position HU against an aggressive player with a possible flush draw on the board has felt like walking with gum on my shoe. I was never comfortable. I think the hand he is most likely to show me is KQ maybe suited or QJ. If he was playing a draw or an AK he will fold the river.

Given his call and no raise I conclude he has been raising on a spade draw or Qx. I don't think he could have called the turn bet with AK. ACTION: Value bet on the river. Bona Bets


22pajo folds



<font color="blue"> Guruman loses .5bb, Bona wins 3.5bb, 22pajo loses 3bb </font>

[cold_cash]

I'm not sure how this works but I assume I'm allowed to comment? If I'm screwing things up or whatever lemme know. I'll keep my thoughts short initially just in case I'm violating protocol or whatever:

The dude w/ AQ needs to 3-bet before the flop. The stealer is never going to fold even if he misclicked with J6.

I don't mind the postflop play though. (Although I think 3-betting the flop is a very viable alternative.)

[Smurph64]

Yes you are allowed to comment, that is the whole idea here really, the hand has finished so comments are very useful to all of us to see where we went wrong and if we are thinking along the right lines.

[MrWookie]

Bona,

You're a bloody nit. Putting a CO open raiser at a 2+2 table where people are being forced to play more hands than they might otherwise would on a range of the top 10% of hands is wwaaaaaayyyyy too tight. I'm thinking top 30% minimum, top 40% more likely, and it could be top anytwocards% depending on what his cards look like at his other tables. If they suck at his other tables, he's likely to just play his position here rather than his cards. Your hand is amazingly good here against his range, and the deception value you'll get from just calling is small. I think 3betting here is mandatory.

Your flop donkbet will look uncharacteristically weak to most 2+2ers, so I expect a raise from many more of his hands than just the nuts or good draws. He expects you to c/r with any pair or better or any legit draw, so this donk looks awfully suspicious. I'd put you on something like 2x, 65, weak spades, and occasionally 22, 44, 42, Q2s, Q4s. His A high (a big portion of his range) is good here a lot, and he might get you to fold some of your 2x hands if he's aggressive. If he's smoked, he's going to find out very quickly.

After you just call the flop, the only hands you really have to worry about him betting are the low spades and some less likely low gutshots if he's really gotten out of line. He'll bet his A's almost all the time to get you to fold a 6 outer or perhaps 2x, he'll bet 2x or 4x for the same reason, and he'll be betting anything better for value. He takes a free card there very, very seldom. And yet you donk. Now what does that look like to him? In a battle of good players, it is saying one of two things, one, you're not taking a free card, dammit, or two, I'm looking to 3bet. And occasionally, this 2nd donk is an odd bluff. What this bet will tend to do is get called by just about any made hand that is not KQ or better, get called by draws, and fold some truely hopeless hands. Occasionally good players will semibluff their draws again, but this tends to happen later in the game, not right off the bat. If you get raised here, it's really not all that good for you, so you won't be anxious to 3bet.

All in all, I don't like your plan for this hand, and I think you need a lot of practice playing with good players and learning how they think. Given what I described above, the plans I like for this hand are (assuming you just called preflop):

c/r/cap flop, b/c turn, c/c river (or bet if just called on the turn)
b/3b/call flop, b/c turn (c/c if he capped you), b/c river (c/c if he was the turn aggressor)
or finally
b/c flop, c/r/c turn, b/c river (or c/c if he 3bet you on the turn)

I don't think I like a plan of c/r/call flop, c/r/call turn, b/c river (c/c if he 3bet you), since that plan has you pretty well pwned if he has better than TPTK.

The way you played this hand just doesn't get enough money in the pot when you have the best hand. It only gets as much in as my proposed plans when you have the worst of his range.

Edited to add: In the plan I didn't like, I'm not planning to c/r the turn if he just calls my flop c/r. Instead, it's a plan to forego the flop cap in favor of a turn c/r.

[Bona]

[ QUOTE ]
You're a bloody nit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes I am!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need a lot of practice playing with good players

[/ QUOTE ]
YES I DO!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
The way you played this hand just doesn't get enough money in the pot when you have the best hand. It only gets as much in as my proposed plans when you have the worst of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I get it. Now to learn and "burn in" the execution of same!! Thanks for taking the time to analyze this. Further comments by me on this hand might not serve me well in the remaining MLET hands.

[Thrakkar]

[ QUOTE ]
Further comments by me on this hand might not serve me well in the remaining MLET hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't be too concerned about that. You'll learn from this hand and won't make the same mistakes again. Be creative and find new ones! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[zaephyr]

I wouldnt put him on best 10% hands preflop, more like 15-18 (he is in CO), so i would value raise preflop.

If u raise preflop, b/c flop and c/r turn.
If u call this preflop, c/c or c/r flop. With donking that flop you either make your opponent fold much worser hand or. he'll raise with pretty much anyhand (as bluff, free turn card, draw etc..).
I would c/c on flop and plan to c/r non-spade/king turn here, opponent probably wont check thru turn, and even if he itends to he would most probably fold to turn donk.
River is standard.

[Shillx]

Bona,

I don't like the turn bet/calldown idea. If you are going to lead-call-lead I think it has to be with the intention of 3-betting. I mean it could be with the intention of folding but no way that is happening. He is basically always going to bet when you check to him so a free card isn't an issue. Also when he just calls the turn I would sometimes check the river.