How bad shape can you be in with a flush draw plus open ended?

[betgo]

$10 rebuy, rebuy period
You wondered why Hellmuth folded an open end straight flush draw on the flop.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t7600)
UTG (t1440)
UTG+1 (t2530)
MP1 (t5340)
MP2 (t1460)
Hero (t2800)
CO (t1510)
Button (t2920)
SB (t1390)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t40</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t20.

Flop: (t170) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t140</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2760</font>, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t2350 (All-In).

Turn: (t5420) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t5420) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t5420

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has Qd 7d (two pair, jacks and sevens).
Hero has 4d 6d (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t5150. Hero wins t270. </font>

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1656726
pokenum -h 4d 6d - qd 7d -- 7h 5d jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jd 5d 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6d 4d 223 22.53 767 77.47 0 0.00 0.225
Qd 7d 767 77.47 223 22.53 0 0.00 0.775

[TomHimself]

i took a bubble bath today, it was very nice

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
i took a bubble bath today, it was very nice

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't have played this hand that way out of the rebuy period, but you think a striaght draw plus open ended is real strong and should be played strongly. However, here I was 22.5% against a hand that didn't look like a monster.

[Pat Southern]

You're worse off against 78

[KneeCo]

Betgo,
What do you believe is gained by posting results and twodimes numbers? Don't you agree that posted hands would be more interesting without results, a range for the players in the hand, a justification therefore, and pokerstove data.

[Annulus]

If you knew he has your flush outs counterfitted then im sure you don't play this hand the same.

[Annulus]

i find post interesting. i dont think hes posting a "how do you play this hand" type of post. this is just an interesting situation. usually you are the favorite when you 'think' you have 17ish outs.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
You're worse off against 78

[/ QUOTE ]
Only slightly.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1656766
pokenum -h 4d 6d - 8d 7d -- 7h 5d jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jd 5d 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6d 4d 205 20.71 785 79.29 0 0.00 0.207
8d 7d 785 79.29 205 20.71 0 0.00 0.793

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

6385

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Betgo,
What do you believe is gained by posting results and twodimes numbers? Don't you agree that posted hands would be more interesting without results, a range for the players in the hand, a justification therefore, and pokerstove data.

[/ QUOTE ]
The point of the post is not what I should do in this situation early in the rebuy period. The point is how bad shape the hand is according to the two dimes data. All posts don't have to be int he form of "Hero ???".