$100 NL - defined overpair in blinds, awkward stack size - what to do?

The Student · #1 07-21-2007, 07:20 PM

Villian in this hand is new to the table (1 orbit), so I don't have a good understanding of his range here. I think my pre-flop action from the blinds pretty much defines my hand as QQ - AA, but that doesn't mean that all my opponents will see it that way too. Given his flat call of a PFR from UTG, and then his flat call of my big PFRR, I think his likely range includes 5/5 - J/J (all middle and medium PPs), and only the strongest non-pair hands, like A/K and A/Q. I just can't see most opponents flat-calling with much less in this spot, and I can't see them not raising PF here with K/K or Q/Q.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($248.95)
SB ($10.50)
Hero ($107)
UTG ($20.50)
UTG+1 ($14)
MP1 ($83.70)
MP2 ($165.65)
MP3 ($60)
CO ($93.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $3.5, UTG+1 calls $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $19, UTG raises to $24 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, CO calls $17, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($70) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero ???

Villian has a stack of about $69 left, I have him covered by a bit.

Given his range and the fact that both of us are seeing the flop with stacks approximately equal to the pot, what's my line on this dangerous flop? I could, of course, be drawing almost dead to a flush (although that's pretty unlikely unless he has something like Ad/Qd given my estimated range for him), or a set with 10/10 or J/J. I'm also in trouble against any A/Q (also unlikely because I have 2 of the aces), and some poorly played two pair hand like J/10. So I'm likely to still be ahead here but I don't want to give a lone diamond or a Q a free shot. Given that our stacks are just about the size of the pot, if I'm going to bet I should just push, right? If I push, I'm hoping that he'll fold, because if I'm called at best he has a big draw against me (flush, straight, maybe both), and at worst I could be almost dead.

Does anyone check this? If so, are you folding to a bet? If the stacks were deeper, I could understand checking here, but because any bet commits us to the pot, I can't see any benefit to checking.

All thoughts and comments are welcome, thanks.

ts-

mce86 · #2 07-21-2007, 08:15 PM

What a terrible flop. You can almost guarantee the ace of diamonds is out there..since you dont have it. Someone likely has a set with all those big cards. I'd say vs. two players with that action, your aces just got toasted.
Im hoping he checks behind, if he doesnt have it, he's as scared of you as you are of him. I think you have to be behind here, and if you are not, you will see his hand since the pot is protected so you will gain information. If he is bad enough to call those raises pf without a premium hand, then you'll win your 17 bucks back soon enough.
I wouldnt fold to a small turn bet..but dammit...what the hell kind of flop is this?

The Student · #3 07-21-2007, 08:20 PM

FYI -

Oops, I just realized that there's a mistake in the HH. There were only 3 players (not 4) on the flop, and 1 was all-in, so I was heads up on the flop.

Thrahl · #4 07-21-2007, 08:40 PM

Check fold.

The Student · #5 07-21-2007, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you expand on that? Do you think villian will only bet here if he has me beat, and will otherwise check down behind me? And if I'm not already beat, do you not think it's worth betting out to prevent giving a free card?

ts-

bottomset · #6 07-21-2007, 09:46 PM

CO has made a fundamental mistake preflop putting in as much as he did

you are freerolling him postflop

even on that ugly a board you aren't behind always so just shove

The Student · #7 07-21-2007, 10:15 PM

given how awkward this hand became on the flop after I re-raised it PF, do you think I should have re-raised it a different amount PF?

soah · #8 07-21-2007, 10:32 PM

I just push here, the pot is huge already and it's unlikely that you have less than six outs if you're behind, and his range here is pretty much undefined but in general you should be ahead here a reasonable amount of the time. He could very easily have AK here or some stupid mid pair.

soah · #9 07-21-2007, 10:34 PM

reads on utg would actually be pretty useful though because if he's not some tilting idiot donkey then there's a real good chance he has the best hand now in which case there is much less of a need to bet out to protect your hand vs 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something from the other player